Nolan Orr - FencingTracker

Wallingford-Swarthmore Panthers

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	DE	1644	740 - 2547	1644	2093
Foil	Pool	1200	664 - 1735	1200	1601
Épée	DE	1259	200 - 2317	1259	1465
Épée	Pool	1040	538 - 1541	1040	1174
Saber	DE	1704	505 - 2902	1704	1704
Saber	Pool	1688	1031 - 2344	1688	1688

^* We're quite confident that the person's true strength is somewhere between those numbers. For those statistically inclined, it is a 95% confidence interval of the estimate (i.e., μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Outcome	Chance	My strength change	Their strength change
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Strength over time

The strength changes are summaries from all events of that day. The dotted line indicates that the strength rating is too uncertain.

Explanation

The strength number is a numeric representation of how a fencer has performed against others historically.

The system "learns" your strength as you fence. It takes about 12 bouts for it to zero in on a good estimate. This is why in the beginning you will often see wild fluctuations.

An unknown fencer starts with a 2500 strength, but with very high uncertainty.

Due to their different natures, pools, direct elimination, and mixed gender bouts are tracked separately.

The lowest possible is zero, average is around 2500, highest possible is around 5000. The scale is not linear, which means that higher numbers are increasingly harder to obtain. To be precise, the distribution of strength numbers looks like a bell curve.

If you beat a much stronger fencer, your strength will go up by a lot. If you beat a much weaker fencer, your strength will go up by little or maybe even not at all. Losses follow the same logic. You can see detailed changes after each bout in the bout history.

Probability of winning doesn't account for difference in fencing styles, familiarity with opponents, or any of such things. It is a reflection of the difference in strength estimates assuming that both of you perform just like you did against others in the past.