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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	CROMWELL Keira	100%	100%	96%	76%	32%
2	STONE Sydney	100%	96%	71%	30%	5%
3	KHAN Leena	100%	100%	95%	69%	16%
3	DESERANNO Seren	100%	86%	46%	12%	1%
5	KUMBRINK Emily	100%	97%	79%	41%	9%
6	LICHTENSTEIGER Megan	100%	98%	82%	45%	10%
7	DIRKES Catherine	100%	95%	65%	16%
8	RUPERT Ellie	100%	98%	83%	44%	9%
9	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	100%	99%	88%	55%	16%
10	MUMMANENI Samyuta	100%	93%	60%	15%
11	MARTIN Sloan	100%	100%	96%	76%	32%
12	KNAPP Isabella	100%	88%	53%	16%	2%
13	ADLER Zoe	100%	68%	23%	3%
14	OS Danielle	100%	93%	63%	23%	3%
15	AADHI Hansika	100%	98%	85%	49%	13%
16	MORSE Katherine	100%	62%	19%	3%	-
17	LEVY Gabrielle	100%	91%	58%	19%	2%
18	MALONE Ella	100%	95%	68%	29%	5%
19	CHUNG Stella	100%	97%	79%	39%	8%
20	WOODLEY Isabella	100%	90%	57%	19%	2%
21	SANTOS Samantha Zoe	100%	98%	82%	44%	10%
22	HOROWITZ Shuli	100%	92%	57%	13%
23	LIN Kenzie	100%	59%	17%	2%	-
24	LIN Athena	100%	56%	16%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.