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Duel of the East Coast Spring RYC & RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Valley Forge Event Center - King of Prussia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JIN Owen	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
2	COLLYMORE Spencer T.	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
3	CHATZIKALFAS Dimitris E.	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	18%	3%
3	KNOX James	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%
5	WU Jonathan	-	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	15%
6	ZHAO Luhan	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	23%
7	KUMAR Aidan	-	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
8	CAO Albert	-	3%	13%	33%	36%	15%
9	CAO Brad	-	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
10	MATTO Edward J.	-	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
11	WEI HUNTER	-	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	10%
12	SHA Michael	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
13	GORTI Agustya	-	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
14	WU Marcus	2%	15%	32%	32%	16%	4%	-
15	GOON Tristan Yang	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-	-
16	MCCOMISKEY Aiden J.	-	-	< 1%	5%	23%	44%	29%
17	PARK Frederick	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
18	XIA Oliver	3%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%	-
19	LAI Aedin	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%	2%
20	HE Lawrence	-	-	4%	19%	45%	32%
21	STABB Xuan	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%	1%
22	DISIMONE David Z.	-	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
23	OTTO Nathaniel B.	-	2%	14%	36%	34%	12%	2%
24	GRAYSON Joshua	21%	46%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
25	DORASZELSKI Mark	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
26	FANG Hanning	1%	10%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
27	ZOU Xianyang	15%	44%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
28	PARK Nicholas	2%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
29	PAN Tristan	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
30	UPSHAW Micah	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
31	HU Anton	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
32	HU Robert J.	6%	28%	41%	20%	4%	-	-
33	MCWILLIAMS Miles	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
34	FUSSMAN Yuval	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
35	SHULKIN Mark	15%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
36	BRODSKY Julian	8%	29%	36%	20%	6%	1%	-
37	WADE Grayson	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
38	EANG Brynner	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
39	TEH Steven	1%	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
40	O'ROURKE Miles	48%	40%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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