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Y-14 Men's Foil

Friday, April 29, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEWIS Akhil	-	-	4%	24%	45%	27%
2	LYU Victor	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
3	GUO Justin	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
3	SIMA Congyu Josh	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
5	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
6	KLOTZ Isaiah	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	5%
7	XU Andy P.	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%
8	RUIZ ALMEIDA Muhammad	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	6%
9	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
10	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
11	LEE Brendan	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
12	WONG Jackson	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
13	MAO Lucas	-	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
14	LIU Derek	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
15	GERRISH William	-	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
16	UNGERER Roger M.	-	6%	38%	39%	15%	2%
17	GULCHIN Mark (Yerma)	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
18	LI Aaron	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	10%
19	SEMAPAKDI-CHANG Kaiden	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
20	CHENG Ethan	-	1%	15%	40%	35%	10%
21	CHEN Kyle P.	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
22	ZENG Rick	-	1%	11%	32%	36%	16%	2%
23	ZHANG Lucas	1%	13%	39%	33%	11%	2%	-
24	LINDEMANN Marc	2%	15%	33%	31%	15%	3%	-
25	KIAYIAS Aris	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	18%	4%
26	HIGGASON Hugh	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-	-
27	JURMAN Therin	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
28	CHO Xzander	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
29	MILLER Jordan	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	4%
30	DESERANNO Leander	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
31	TAN Aidan	1%	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
32	DALBERG Anders	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
33	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	5%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
34	SONG Noel	1%	7%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
35	WANG Julang	4%	22%	36%	27%	10%	2%	-
36	LEE Eugene	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
37	XIE Jicheng	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
38	DOELL Ethan	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
39	CHUNG Ian	63%	34%	3%	-	-	-
40	CHEN Ethan	9%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
41	GHEDINI Luca	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
41	BAI Brian	51%	40%	9%	1%	-	-	-
43	BROOKS Matthew	46%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
44	JIANG Oscar	22%	58%	18%	2%	-	-
45	CHENG Austyn	46%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
46	REYES Yannik	18%	50%	26%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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