The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

January NAC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, January 8, 2022 at 2:00 PM

San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 CHEN Andrew - 3% 13% 32% 36% 16%
2 LI Brandon H. - - - - 3% 24% 73%
3 CHEN James P. - - - - 3% 25% 71%
3 XIAO Enoch A. - - - 4% 19% 43% 34%
5 EMMER Chase T. - - - - 1% 16% 83%
6 KUMBLA Samarth - - - 5% 22% 43% 30%
7 CHEN Allen - 1% 7% 26% 42% 24%
8 DESERANNO Jeidus - - - 5% 21% 43% 31%
9 YU Eric W. - - - 3% 18% 43% 35%
9 LOUIE Bryce - - - - 1% 14% 86%
9 LAO Scott E. - - 5% 24% 40% 26% 5%
12 YU Vinni - - 1% 8% 29% 44% 18%
13 HAMILTON Bogdan A. - - - 4% 21% 44% 30%
14 LI Raphael C. 2% 14% 32% 33% 16% 3%
15 KELLY William J. - - 2% 13% 36% 36% 13%
16 GRIFFITH JACK - - 3% 18% 40% 33% 7%
17 TULYAG Fyze A. - - - 2% 14% 42% 42%
18 SHAFAIE Kaveh - - - 3% 19% 45% 33%
19 CHEN Ziyuan - - 3% 17% 42% 38%
20 HUTH Mitchell 1% 6% 21% 37% 28% 8%
21 UM Ethan A. - - 1% 8% 28% 42% 22%
22 JEON Caleb A. - 3% 16% 36% 34% 12%
23 ZHANG Daniel D. - - - 2% 13% 40% 45%
24 KWON Ethan - - - 6% 27% 45% 21%
25 LIU Justin - - - 5% 24% 44% 26%
26 LI Richard - - 1% 7% 34% 45% 14%
27 LIU Patrick - - - 1% 10% 39% 50%
27 ZHANG Andy W. - - 3% 17% 39% 35% 6%
29 LIU Niles J. - - 1% 9% 30% 41% 19%
29 WONG Adam L. - - 1% 10% 33% 40% 16%
31 AUGUSTINE Ethan A. - 1% 8% 27% 41% 23%
32 LO Conrad - - 3% 17% 43% 37%
33 BINDER Zachary (Zach) B. - - - 1% 12% 43% 43%
34 ZUSIN Zachary W. - - 1% 9% 38% 52%
35 RUSADZE Nickolas - 3% 17% 43% 31% 7%
36 KORABLIN Anton - - 2% 13% 34% 37% 13%
37 VOGLER Justin K. - - - 2% 14% 43% 40%
38 SHIH William - - 1% 13% 42% 36% 8%
39 GROSSMAN SMISEK Spencer E. - - 5% 22% 40% 27% 6%
40 DIERKS Kian - 3% 20% 40% 29% 7% 1%
41 ZHENG Alan H. - - 4% 24% 43% 25% 3%
42 JANG Jaewon - - 2% 13% 33% 38% 14%
43 BURKE Spencer W. - - - 5% 24% 44% 27%
44 BESSIRE Nolan S. - - - 1% 11% 39% 49%
44 MORAIS Paulo - - 1% 12% 34% 38% 15%
46 XIAO Ethan J. - - - 6% 26% 44% 25%
47 REALS Alden D. - 1% 8% 26% 39% 22% 4%
48 WU Nicholas - 7% 25% 38% 24% 5%
49 OURSLER Jack - - 3% 20% 46% 31%
50 YANG Luao - 2% 13% 34% 38% 13%
51 LI Owen 2% 14% 33% 35% 14% 2%
52 LIAO Jun Heng (James) - - - - 6% 32% 62%
53 HUTH Jacob - - 4% 20% 41% 31% 4%
54 KLOSTERMANN Max - 3% 22% 41% 26% 7% 1%
55 LUTAR Lucas N. - - 1% 9% 31% 41% 18%
56 BAE Kevin - 3% 17% 38% 32% 9% 1%
57 KAO Castor T. - - 2% 16% 39% 33% 9%
58 LIN Richard W. - - 5% 25% 42% 24% 4%
59 YANG Andy H. - 2% 18% 43% 31% 5%
60 LAURICELLA Douglas - 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 3%
61 ZENG Lucas H. 1% 6% 22% 37% 27% 7%
62 SOTO Ulises G 2% 11% 29% 35% 19% 4%
63 DANKAR Neel - 2% 11% 30% 36% 18% 3%
64 GRIFFIN John O. - - 1% 6% 25% 43% 25%
65 CHUNG Andrew N. - - - - 3% 26% 71%
66 TSANG Matthew K. - 1% 12% 35% 36% 15% 2%
67 KO Brian J. - - 2% 12% 33% 38% 14%
68 SULLIVAN Jackson R. - - 3% 16% 35% 34% 12%
69 MITCHELL Philip D. - - 2% 10% 30% 40% 18%
70 NDIAYE Edriss G. - - - 1% 13% 43% 44%
71 KIM Brandon J. - 1% 10% 37% 41% 10%
72 XIAO EDWARD - 1% 13% 35% 36% 14% 1%
73 KIM Isaiah G. 1% 11% 34% 35% 16% 3% -
74 ZHAI Jeffrey - 2% 14% 37% 35% 11% 1%
75 BAS Liam - 3% 15% 34% 35% 12%
76 KIM Nicholas W. - - 1% 11% 34% 41% 13%
77 STANLEY Mason B. - - 1% 7% 26% 42% 24%
78 WU Alexander - 1% 6% 26% 39% 24% 5%
79 YI Stephen K. - - 3% 17% 38% 34% 8%
80 BALL James T. - 3% 16% 35% 32% 12% 2%
80 PELOSKY Zack B. - - 4% 26% 43% 24% 2%
80 WONG Adrian - 11% 32% 36% 17% 3% -
83 PARK Luke J. - 1% 7% 26% 40% 23% 4%
83 ZHANG Henry C. - - 3% 17% 40% 35% 5%
85 CHIN Julian S. - 3% 16% 35% 33% 13% 1%
86 MARTINEZ Donavyn E. - - 2% 12% 33% 38% 15%
87 WU Alexander - 3% 18% 38% 30% 10% 1%
88 DAI Jonathan T. - - 2% 14% 40% 40% 4%
89 SONG Aiden S. - - 4% 22% 43% 29% 2%
90 SINGH Dayaal - - 3% 15% 36% 35% 11%
91 BRUK Peter J. - 2% 13% 33% 35% 15% 2%
91 LEE Jacob J 1% 11% 30% 35% 18% 4% -
93 ZHAO Jason L. - - 8% 30% 39% 19% 3%
93 DORAN Wesley C. - 5% 24% 37% 25% 7% 1%
95 PRILUTSKY David B. - - 1% 9% 30% 42% 19%
96 LIANG Lixi (Henry) - - 1% 12% 34% 39% 14%
97 HOOSHI Jayden C. - 3% 16% 36% 33% 11% 1%
98 AHN Jun - 3% 18% 37% 30% 10% 1%
99 HOBSON Aaron K. 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1% -
99 LEE Aidan - 3% 18% 40% 30% 8% 1%
101 LEVY Jacob M. - 1% 8% 28% 41% 22%
102 NAYGAS LAWRENCE I. 7% 27% 38% 22% 5% -
103 TANG Owen S. 14% 36% 33% 13% 2% -
104 GOOR Julian - 1% 10% 34% 38% 16% 2%
106 PYO Michael M. - 1% 13% 35% 35% 13% 1%
107 KASI Sanjay - - 2% 12% 33% 37% 15%
107 XIAO Leon (Ruibo) - - 3% 13% 34% 37% 12%
109 BAUMSTEIN Nicholas I. - - - 5% 25% 48% 21%
110 SCHULZE-KALT Graydon L. - 2% 14% 35% 36% 12% 1%
111 WYMAN Julian - 7% 32% 39% 18% 3% -
111 BUERGIN Aidan - 5% 22% 41% 27% 6% -
113 CHENG Matthew S. - 1% 10% 33% 37% 16% 2%
114 OH Samuel H. - 3% 17% 36% 32% 10% 1%
115 HO Jia Le Sean 1% 14% 39% 33% 11% 1% -
116 TSAY Jeremy M. - 3% 22% 41% 28% 6% -
117 MIN Eric 1% 13% 34% 34% 15% 3% -
118 ZHANG Luke T. - 4% 20% 37% 28% 9% 1%
119 DEGROOT Blake 33% 41% 20% 5% 1% -
120 PETER Griffin - - 6% 24% 39% 25% 6%
121 SONG Leonardo T. - - 7% 32% 42% 18% 1%
122 LIN Dashiell - 2% 14% 33% 34% 15% 2%
123 GOBBO Alexander 2% 30% 45% 19% 3% -
124 GAO William 1% 13% 34% 34% 15% 2% -
125 MURUHIN Yaroslav - 2% 12% 34% 39% 13% -
126 GEE Brandon 1% 11% 33% 36% 16% 3%
127 GRANT Lachlan K. 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
128 KIM Aaron J. 20% 40% 29% 9% 1% -
129 GODZHIK Zachary - 2% 13% 35% 34% 14% 2%
130 BING Charles - 2% 21% 42% 27% 7% -
131 HO Ryan J. - - 6% 27% 41% 22% 3%
132 WONG Luke S. 18% 41% 31% 10% 1% - -
133 DARIANO Noah G. - 8% 28% 37% 21% 4% -
134 TEH Ryan 30% 45% 21% 4% < 1% - -
135 YEROKHIN Michael N. 1% 7% 25% 38% 25% 5%
136 ANDREWS Nathan J. - - 5% 25% 46% 23%
137 BARTEL Jacob L. 18% 39% 31% 11% 2% -
138 OTAKE Jared K. - 1% 7% 28% 41% 20% 3%
139 KIM Yonjae - 2% 15% 39% 32% 10% 1%
140 SEZER Kaya - 5% 21% 37% 28% 8% 1%
141 KIM Ryan Y. 2% 25% 46% 23% 4% - -
141 CANLAS Nathan 2% 14% 33% 33% 14% 3% -
143 HSIUNG Richie 4% 24% 42% 24% 6% 1% -
144 NAGER Noah - 6% 35% 39% 17% 3% -
145 DAVIDSON Elliot 3% 50% 37% 9% 1% - -
146 PRASANNA Advaith 13% 38% 35% 12% 2% - -
147 LIN Michael 1% 9% 29% 38% 19% 3% -
148 MCGILLION-MOORE Jake - - 3% 17% 36% 33% 11%
149 FOGELSON Frederick J. - 1% 11% 33% 36% 16% 2%
150 LIM Charles Q. 13% 44% 34% 9% 1% - -
151 SONG Bryan 2% 40% 45% 12% 1% - -
152 GRAHAM Roy J. 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 4%
153 CHENG Nathan 18% 39% 31% 11% 2% -
154 YU Anders 3% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2%
155 MOHAMED Amir 9% 36% 37% 15% 3% -
156 WOO Christian 19% 40% 29% 10% 2% -
157 MUSHER Benjamin J. 1% 18% 46% 28% 7% 1% -
158 KANG Anthony 1% 20% 43% 27% 7% 1% -
159 GONG Benjamin 3% 16% 35% 32% 13% 2% -
160 BAE Junnie - 7% 36% 39% 15% 3% -
161 LUH Ethan K. 1% 12% 33% 35% 15% 3% -
161 KUO Evan 6% 27% 39% 23% 5% - -
163 MA Andrew 13% 42% 33% 10% 2% - -
164 LU Yikai - 2% 11% 33% 38% 15% 1%
165 BANERJEE ANUP - 1% 7% 27% 43% 22% 1%
165 UPTON Craig 5% 26% 41% 23% 5% - -
167 WECHSLER Jacob 4% 24% 43% 24% 5% - -
168 TSAI Max W. 6% 42% 40% 11% 1% - -
169 DETERING Julian 3% 23% 46% 23% 4% - -
170 CANO Marcos E. 11% 39% 35% 13% 2% - -
171 FEDONCHIK Henry J. 6% 28% 39% 21% 5% - -
171 GONZALEZ Matthew 52% 39% 8% 1% - - -
173 ZHENG zhe 4% 39% 40% 14% 2% - -
174 FINNEY Lorenz 17% 40% 31% 10% 1% - -
175 MILLER Duncan R. 10% 35% 36% 15% 3% - -
176 XIAO Anthony - 8% 38% 38% 13% 2% -
177 JI Aidan Y. 1% 15% 40% 35% 9% 1% -
178 MOHAMED Murad 4% 29% 40% 22% 5% 1% -
179 KIM Jackson 15% 39% 32% 12% 2% - -
180 AUGUSTINE Aaron A. 12% 41% 35% 11% 2% - -
181 FREEDMAN Samuel E. 5% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1%
181 LI Matthew 7% 31% 43% 17% 2% -
183 SHEN Owen 28% 46% 22% 3% - -
184 SIU Aiden 14% 37% 33% 13% 2% -
185 SHA Yi Peng 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1%
186 WANG Ethan 25% 46% 24% 4% - -
187 TAN Christien 16% 38% 32% 12% 2% -
188 DESOLA Aidan J. 1% 15% 40% 34% 8% 1% -
189 HOSKERI Anik S. 2% 57% 34% 7% 1% - -
190 CORTRIGHT Joshua C. 12% 46% 32% 9% 1% - -
191 PIESNER Zachary C. 1% 31% 48% 17% 2% - -
192 LE Vyn A. 16% 48% 29% 6% 1% - -
193 SEAL Maximus R. 13% 51% 30% 5% - - -
194 SISINNI Riccardo 1% 67% 28% 4% - - -
195 KLEIN Sebastian W. 14% 45% 31% 9% 1% - -
196 MURRAY Maximo - 9% 29% 37% 20% 4% -
196 ALFARO Sergio Raul O. 2% 13% 33% 34% 15% 3% -
196 VALOUEV Aleksey 26% 42% 25% 7% 1% - -
199 ANDERSON Jacob 42% 42% 14% 2% - - -
199 GOGOI Vir K. 10% 33% 38% 17% 3% - -
199 OH Jaden 12% 55% 28% 5% - - -
202 MORALES Ian N. 3% 35% 44% 16% 2% -
203 DINSAY Kristjan 16% 45% 31% 7% 1% - -
204 NGUYEN Nish - 5% 28% 41% 22% 4% -
205 MCCOSH Evin M. 32% 43% 20% 4% - - -
206 BAEK David 5% 59% 31% 5% - - -
206 MYERS Dean 54% 37% 8% 1% - - -
208 YEE Johnathan 19% 41% 30% 9% 1% - -
209 ZHANG Jiening (Jason) 10% 34% 38% 15% 3% - -
210 SUNG Chang-Han S. 1% 12% 33% 35% 16% 3% -
211 MAURER Ned (John) E. 1% 8% 25% 36% 24% 6%
212 DAVIS Christopher M. 11% 34% 36% 16% 3% -
213 JAIN Aditya 5% 22% 37% 27% 8% 1%
214 MA Bryant 50% 38% 11% 1% - -
215 HARRIS Otto 30% 44% 22% 4% - - -
216 TUAN Evan 68% 27% 4% - - - -
216 LANG Dong Lin 8% 30% 37% 20% 5% - -
218 LI Avery Peihong 17% 48% 30% 6% - - -
219 YU Leo 60% 34% 6% - - - -
219 EDISON Ansel 84% 15% 1% - - - -
221 CHUANG Kian J. 20% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
221 HARRIS Rhonen 53% 38% 8% 1% - - -
223 LI Jett 46% 41% 11% 1% - - -
223 AIKEN Nicholas A. 48% 40% 11% 1% - - -
223 SEEDS Edward T. 19% 42% 30% 8% 1% - -
223 KIM Jonah 92% 8% - - - - -
227 SMITH Grant D. 43% 43% 13% 1% - - -
228 PETERSON Lucas 90% 10% - - - - -
229 CHEN Justin K. 54% 38% 8% 1% - - -
229 BOUCHARD Kai 80% 19% 1% - - - -
229 PORTER Rory 93% 7% - - - - -
232 ALBINALI Eissa 99% 1% - - - - -
233 BARTELS Milo 80% 18% 1% - - -
233 GRANADOS Luis 75% 23% 2% - - - -
235 MAK Osman K. 73% 25% 2% - - - -
236 KALAMAS Nikolas 97% 3% - - - - -
236 LI Matthew 24% 42% 26% 7% 1% - -
238 AGRAWAL Niki 67% 30% 3% - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.