The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Garden State RJCC

Cadet Men's Saber

Saturday, March 12, 2022 at 4:30 PM

The Sportsplex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	WANG Robert	-	-	2%	18%	45%	35%
2	GLOZMAN Justin	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
3	LUTHRA Arjun	-	-	5%	27%	48%	20%
3	VOSS Jeffer	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
5	MICLAUS Justin	-	-	2%	13%	44%	41%
6	LIU Mingyang Ryan	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
7	SAVOY Luca	-	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%
8	HUROWITZ Max	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%
9	FIELDS Matthew S.	-	-	5%	26%	47%	21%
10	BERA Enzo	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	20%
11	GINSBERG Jordan	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
12	HOPPA Luke H.	-	-	6%	28%	46%	20%
13	DEKA Tanush	-	3%	18%	43%	30%	6%
14	KWALWASSER Eric	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
15	PERRON Robert	1%	14%	41%	33%	10%	1%
16	CHENG Hong	4%	29%	45%	19%	3%	-
17	SIMMONS John M.	1%	9%	34%	40%	14%	2%
18	CHOKSI Vihaan	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
19	KOGAN Nikita	-	17%	38%	31%	11%	1%
20	LEDERMAN James	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%
21	DIMATTEO Michael	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
22	PAKANATI Karthik	10%	42%	35%	12%	2%	-
23	TANG Shu Hon	-	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%
24	LI Yao (Liam)	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
25	YOO Maxwell	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
26	LONKER Zachary	37%	48%	14%	1%	-	-
27	SINGER Marcus	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
28	LIN Philip T.	1%	13%	40%	35%	9%	1%
29	TAUER Sam	9%	41%	38%	11%	1%	-
30	LASKOW Oliver	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
31	LIGUORI Michael	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
32	XIA Eric	10%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-
33	FTAIHA Ezra	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
34	DICARLO Vincent	95%	5%	-	-	-	-
35	XU Justin	25%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
35	BHATIA Ekam	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.