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Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Ontario Convention Center - Hall B - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DAVOODIAN Christopher	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
2	CHEN Zhengyang	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
3	WANG Joey	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
3	JAIN Samyak	-	1%	9%	32%	43%	15%
5	GINZBURG Adam	-	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%
6	LIU Yueri	-	-	4%	17%	37%	33%	9%
7	LEE Inwoo	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
8	HERNDON Liam	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
9	DONAHUE Lake	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
10	KIM Teddy	-	2%	14%	38%	37%	8%
11	HUANG Yidong Allen	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%	1%
12	LI zerong	-	5%	25%	41%	24%	4%
13	RONG Gordon	-	6%	25%	42%	24%	3%
14	RAHMAN Ali	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
15	MAXU Tiger	-	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
16	KIM Alexander	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
17	LEE Damien	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
18	MEHROTRA Neel	-	-	2%	17%	43%	37%
19	RODOCANACHI Hector	-	-	2%	13%	35%	39%	10%
20	FU Adrian	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
21	ROBERTS Arthur	14%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
22	TAI Edison	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
23	RAHMAN Zayd	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
24	SHEN Jiayi	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
25	WU Nathan	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
26	FEI Victor	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
27	CARCELLER Jeremias	9%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
28	AUSTIN Atlas	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	31%	10%
29	LEE Royce	5%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
30	GOROZA Eric	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
31	TANG Zheng	-	4%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
32	DAI Chengwen	2%	19%	41%	30%	8%	1%
33	GADHVI Darius	47%	43%	9%	1%	-	-
34	HAN Eric	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
35	ZHOU Shawn	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
36	GUO Woody	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
37	KIM Remington	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
38	LIFE Tobe	25%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
39	RONG Marcus	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-	-
40	RODRIGUEZ Ripley	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
41	BO Genero	3%	18%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
42	ABELAR Jacob	16%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
43	BELL Callen	< 1%	4%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
44	STREAM Logan	20%	43%	30%	7%	1%	-
45	LAFKO Sebastian	5%	34%	41%	17%	3%	-
46	MA Ryan	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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