The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Goldfinch ROC D1A, D2, Vet, RJC and chair fencing

Div II Women's Épée

Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 12:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WONG Alexandra R.	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
2	HICKS Grace	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
3	CHANG Ella	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
3	JOYAL Anne-Sophie	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	17%
5	DAMRATOSKI Anna Z.	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
6	TAUBLER Michelle	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
7	SONG Angela	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
8	TYTELL Elizabeth	1%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
9	BLIN Margaux J.	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
10	SPRINGER Sierra	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	9%
11	REMEZA Alissa	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
12	YOU Isabel B.	-	3%	22%	42%	27%	5%
13	YAO Jillian	-	5%	27%	48%	20%
14	ZENG Katrina	-	2%	15%	38%	34%	10%
15	TRAN Helena	-	8%	33%	40%	18%	2%
16	SHEIN Evita	4%	26%	42%	23%	5%	-
17	NGUYEN Kira	-	1%	11%	42%	45%
18	SMUK Daria A.	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
19	PRIHODKO Nina	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
20	KIZILBASH Zara	-	1%	7%	29%	42%	21%
21	CHATIKHINE Anastasia	26%	49%	22%	3%	-
22	SHU Youshan	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	3%
23	WUNDERLICH Cara J.	-	1%	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
24	BOWIE Charlotta	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
25	MEYER Rachel	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
26	YANG Charlotte	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
27	GUO Amanda	4%	21%	39%	27%	8%	1%	-
28	NGUYEN Ashley L.	9%	36%	37%	15%	3%	-
29	CHEN Jingyun	-	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
30	MORA Genesis R.	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
31	LI Suri	5%	28%	46%	19%	2%
32	ROWLAND May	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	2%
33	NGUYEN Julia	7%	29%	37%	21%	6%	1%
34	UNGURIANU Nika	7%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
35	SELIZHUK Stasya	16%	53%	26%	5%	-	-
36	RIST Rebecca (Beck) J.	-	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
37	DANNHAUSER Carol A.	1%	10%	30%	35%	19%	4%	-
38	XIE Fiona	11%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
39	HILLYER Megan	19%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-
41	TOP Melek	31%	45%	21%	4%	-
42	WONG Kairis	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%
43	INAMDAR Nina S.	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
44	SANLIKOL Suzan	17%	45%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
45	FANG Kayla	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
46	BYRON Karen J.	1%	11%	31%	35%	17%	3%
47	HIGH Madeline	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
48	LIU Simiao	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
49	ZOU Jiayi-Hannah	49%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
50	PRADHAN Aditi	64%	32%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.