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CFC Epee Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 11:30 AM

Chesapeake Fencing Club - Towson, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	HENSAL Nicolas A.	-	-	3%	17%	39%	32%	8%
2	CHAWLA Armaan	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
3	CAO Brad	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
3	SCHULZE Ethan	-	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
5	HE Lawrence	-	-	-	1%	9%	26%	40%	24%
6	MURPHY Thomas P.	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
7	SHREM Samuel G.	-	-	1%	7%	32%	43%	17%
8	SERAFIN Ben	-	-	3%	16%	37%	33%	10%
9	LONGSTREET Jeffrey	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
10	COLLEY Joshua	-	1%	7%	22%	34%	27%	8%
11	ZHANG Caden	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
12	WOLFE Alex	-	-	2%	13%	37%	36%	11%
13	LIN Harrison	1%	8%	30%	41%	17%	3%	-
14	SAFKO Jeffrey A.	-	-	1%	8%	25%	41%	25%
15	TOMASZEWSKI Joshua	-	1%	6%	20%	33%	27%	11%	1%
16	CONLEY Seth	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
17	TIRRELL Justin J.	-	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	22%	4%
18	HUTZ Michael B.	-	1%	5%	17%	34%	32%	12%
19	SINGH Ravin	-	1%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%	-
20	KANG Eunwoo	-	2%	15%	36%	32%	13%	2%	-
21	SWEET Ryleigh E.	2%	10%	25%	32%	22%	8%	1%
22	SINGH Aryaman	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%	1%
22	AMOLSCH Dylan	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
24	SO Lorenzo	3%	15%	31%	31%	15%	4%	-
25	MOORTHY Gyan	6%	29%	41%	20%	4%	-	-
26	MURPHY Megan	2%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	1%	-
27	SOKOL Luke	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	2%	-
28	ZHANG Sen	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
29	MCGUIRK Andrew	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
29	HOLLOWAY Donald	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
31	SAFKO Liubov V.	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
32	TOMASZEWSKI Simon	3%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%	-
33	ROBERTS Samuel E.	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
34	CUCCIARRE Pace	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
35	GAMBINO Robert A.	1%	6%	19%	32%	28%	13%	2%
36	WIGHT Joseph M.	1%	15%	33%	31%	15%	4%	-	-
37	GORDON Rachel A.	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%	-
38	BOYKO Frank C.	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
39	WOHNER Kenneth S.	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
40	FOREST Sung	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	1%
41	SMITH Auynha	41%	49%	10%	1%	-	-	-	-
42	SEKOWSKI Jane	10%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
43	ASUNCION Arren	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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