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THE TAMPA CHALLENGE RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 5:00 PM

Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus - Wesley Chapel, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	FEDELI Caterina S.	-	-	-	-	1%	99%
2	MARISI Gianna	-	-	8%	32%	43%	17%
3	OJEDA Andrea	-	-	1%	10%	43%	47%
3	PICO DIB Olga Cristina	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
5	PARK Lina	-	-	1%	18%	54%	27%
6	BORGES Valeryn	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	14%
7	BROWN Lily	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%
8	EVELAND Zoe	-	3%	20%	52%	23%	3%
9	JIANG Nicole	6%	43%	39%	11%	1%	-
10	BABER Eshaal	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
11	ALLEYNE Taylar	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
12	SUAREZ-LEON Gabriella M.	-	-	8%	32%	42%	17%
13	BUDKO Julia	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
14	TEPMAN Alexandra D.	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
15	WRIGHT Taliyah	1%	15%	45%	31%	8%	1%
16	WRIGHT Trinity	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%	-
17	IQBAL Mariam	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%	-
18	QUINTERO Camila	18%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
19	CHEN Zixian	34%	46%	18%	2%	-	-
20	TAN Isabella	20%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-
21	EGOAVIL Isabella	9%	36%	43%	11%	1%	-
22	YERRAMSETTI Hansika	9%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%
23	CANO Sofia	24%	49%	24%	3%	-	-
24	MULLER Van	80%	19%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.