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2022 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, February 6, 2022 at 12:00 PM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GHEDINI Luca	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
2	XU Andy P.	-	-	-	3%	14%	40%	43%
3	CHENG Ethan	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	RUIZ ALMEIDA Muhammad	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
5	GUTH Joseph	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
6	GERRISH William	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	9%
7	TAN Aidan	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
8	ZHAO Adam	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	10%	1%
9	SIMONOV Timofey	-	-	1%	9%	35%	47%	9%
10	MARTIN Darius	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
11	GULCHIN Mark	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	8%
12	CHENG Logan	3%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
13	SION Andrew	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
14	CHEN Ethan	-	5%	17%	32%	30%	13%	2%
15	XIE Jicheng	4%	20%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
16	HONG Logan	-	1%	12%	40%	36%	10%	1%
17	HAN Alexander	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
18	ZHANG Lucas	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
19	HOU Gaven	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
20	LIU Eric	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
21	TANG Terry	-	1%	7%	29%	41%	20%	3%
22	JIMENEZ Naveen	1%	7%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%
23	BOBROW Silas	-	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	6%
24	LAO Kevin	3%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
25	HARRA Alexander	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
26	XU Nathan	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
27	TOOMRE Kai	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	13%	2%
28	MCGILLION-MOORE Charles	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
29	WONG Jacob W.	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
30	SICAT Justin	7%	33%	42%	16%	2%	-	-
31	CHEN Hanson	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
32	BAKSHI Aman	31%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
33	WANG Ancen	9%	40%	38%	12%	2%	-	-
34	MOREA Anderson	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
35	SHANNON Jack	11%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-	-
36	HUANG Jinyao	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
37	HOLMES Alexiy	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
38	DAO-CRESPO Joaquin	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-	-
39	UNGERER Henry	15%	35%	32%	15%	3%	-	-
40	SUNDSTROM Wren	25%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
41	QIAN Zekai	25%	40%	25%	8%	1%	-	-
42	CHEN Darren	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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