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2022 OFC Summer Challenge

Div II Mixed Épée

Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 12:00 PM

OLYMPIC FENCERS CLUB - Johns Creek, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	HUTTO Joshua	1%	7%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
2	HAN Ethan	1%	8%	21%	30%	25%	12%	3%	-
3	SCHERNIKAU Jack	-	2%	10%	24%	31%	22%	9%	1%
3	LIN Kason	-	4%	14%	27%	30%	19%	6%	1%
5	AWAN Saqlain A.	-	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
6	GUNDUBOGULA Raj	-	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
7	LABROZZI Aidan	-	1%	6%	19%	35%	30%	10%
8	CUI Jack	2%	10%	24%	31%	23%	10%	2%	-
9	ZHANG Eric	-	2%	11%	24%	31%	22%	8%	1%
10	PARCELEWICZ John M.	2%	12%	27%	32%	20%	6%	1%	-
11	RACHEL Dylan	-	2%	9%	22%	31%	24%	10%	2%
12	EVANS Grant	-	1%	4%	14%	28%	31%	18%	4%
13	NGUYEN Audrey	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
14	WEBB Jacob T.	-	-	1%	5%	18%	33%	31%	12%
15	BYBEE Lucy J.	1%	9%	23%	32%	24%	10%	2%	-
16	BIRT David (Dave) L.	-	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	30%	9%
17	SCHARF Ryan	-	1%	6%	17%	29%	29%	15%	3%
18	GUDAPATI Rahul	-	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	32%	12%
19	MARSHALL Wesley	-	-	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	27%
20	ZIMINSKY Karel M.	-	-	3%	14%	28%	31%	18%	4%
21	WANG Bryan	-	-	3%	12%	27%	33%	21%	5%
22	MOON Seojung	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
23	MAXWELL CJ F.	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	5%	1%	-
24	KIM Daniel	1%	5%	17%	30%	30%	15%	3%
25	MAXWELL Austin	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
26	CHANG Shane	-	5%	18%	30%	27%	14%	4%	-
27	THUN William	1%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%	-
28	WANG Aidan	-	3%	12%	25%	30%	21%	8%	1%
29	ADIBZADEH Mehrdad	2%	11%	26%	31%	21%	8%	2%	-
30	ATON Dave	1%	9%	24%	32%	23%	9%	1%
31	LEE Daehyeon	2%	22%	41%	28%	7%	-	-	-
32	YANAMANDRA Sidhansh	1%	5%	17%	29%	28%	15%	4%	1%
33	SARIKONDA Akhil	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
34	WRIGHT Alex	4%	18%	31%	29%	14%	4%	-
35	PARK Judy	2%	13%	31%	32%	17%	5%	1%	-
36	CAI Catelynn	11%	30%	33%	19%	6%	1%	-	-
37	HARTIG GUERRA Vera	37%	45%	16%	2%	-	-	-	-
38	KIM Sangone	10%	30%	34%	19%	6%	1%	-	-
38	CHASTAIN Allie	37%	45%	15%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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