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Div I-A Men's Saber

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	EICHHORN Lukas H.	-	-	2%	14%	45%	39%
2	ZHANG Derek	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	12%
3	FENG Leo	-	-	2%	12%	36%	38%	12%
3	TONG ZACHARY	-	-	1%	9%	42%	48%
5	HONG Steven	-	-	4%	22%	48%	25%
6	DELARUE NELSON Y.	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	16%
7	MARGULIES William	-	-	4%	24%	46%	26%
8	ZHANG Ethan W.	-	6%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
9	LI Minghan	-	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	9%
10	LINDHOLM Oliver S.	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
11	LIU Lawrence	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	2%
12	CHAVES Matthew J.	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
13	XUE ALEXANDER	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
14	DOARES Andrew	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
15	GHENEA George Philipe	-	-	3%	21%	52%	24%
16	DUDNICK Christian	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
17	BONSELL Vance	-	2%	17%	44%	30%	6%
18	PAN Alex	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
19	LIN Steve	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	12%	2%
20	GUAN Luke	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
21	MAHAPATRA SAMARTH	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
22	MCCARTHY Devan	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
23	DUPREE Thomas	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	2%
24	ZHAO ERIC	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%	-
25	KUSANAGI Soshi	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
25	CHEN Samuel	7%	37%	41%	13%	1%	-
27	SHI Jeremy	3%	29%	41%	22%	5%	-
28	SEOL Kyung	-	6%	29%	47%	16%	2%
29	FANG Eason	3%	22%	46%	24%	4%	-
30	GRAINGER Graeme	6%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
31	WU Richard	2%	21%	41%	28%	7%	1%
32	BALLOU Johnathan	5%	35%	43%	15%	2%	-
33	DECK Tyson	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
34	VAN NIMWEGEN Nicholas	3%	18%	35%	29%	12%	3%	-
35	TIAGI Daniel	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
36	KIRSCH Alejandro	28%	47%	22%	4%	-	-
37	DE SOUZA CABRERO Yorrick	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
38	SILVA Steven	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
39	PROUDNIK Anthony	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
40	MORELAND Jack	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-
41	NAWAZ Taimoor	36%	48%	14%	1%	-	-
42	SUN Bill	40%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
43	WOLF Gabriel	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
44	KHADAR Keith	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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