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Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Ethan	-	-	-	5%	23%	46%	26%
2	HAN Derek	-	-	5%	22%	45%	27%
3	EDWARDS Maxon	1%	7%	24%	36%	26%	7%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
5	CHUANG Oscar	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
6	ALLEN Henry G.	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
7	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	-	2%	16%	44%	37%
8	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	18%
9	STRINGER David	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
10	LU Alex	-	-	6%	30%	48%	15%
11	VANOYEN Dominick	-	-	8%	32%	43%	17%
12	SENIC Lucas	-	1%	5%	23%	45%	27%
12	KIM Daniel	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
14	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
15	TAMIYA Masao	-	3%	22%	43%	27%	5%
16	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-
17	SLUSHER Gideon	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	5%
18	BARCA Bryant	-	4%	22%	45%	25%	4%
19	MAVANI Krishna	2%	18%	40%	30%	9%	1%
20	SUN Ryan	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%
21	GOGOI Kavi	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
22	SUI Samuel	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
23	KNIBBE Nathan	1%	9%	41%	37%	11%	1%
24	KUE Temujin	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-
25	NAZARIO Dominic	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%	1%
26	LINCOLN William	18%	45%	30%	7%	1%	-
27	MASSIMINO Andrew	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	6%	-
28	FINDLAY Zachary	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
29	HICKEY Connor	3%	17%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
30	OZAWA Taishi	7%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
31	ZHENG Marcus	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
32	WINGLER Cole	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
33	IANNI Renato	1%	7%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%
34	LEE Ian	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
35	HEYBOER Jason	11%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
36	TURNER Jackson	39%	45%	15%	1%	-	-
37	MOLDOVEANU Roman	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
38	LATORRE Leonardo	6%	30%	43%	18%	2%	-
39	JOYCE Ryan	26%	53%	19%	3%	-	-
40	KOLACKI Gabriel	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
41	GOODLIN Sean	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
42	ZMUDA Aiden	16%	44%	31%	8%	1%	-
43	NI Aaric	52%	41%	6%	-	-	-
44	TACK Everett	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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