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Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 10, 2022 at 11:30 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TANG Alexander L.	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	51%
2	ZHAO Adam	-	-	-	1%	8%	46%	46%
3	SHENG Dalton	-	-	1%	5%	28%	56%	10%
3	PARRISH Evan	-	1%	4%	17%	33%	33%	12%
5	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	-	1%	7%	28%	40%	21%	3%
6	TANG Terry	-	-	2%	13%	35%	39%	11%
7	YOON Aiden	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
8	DOELL Ethan	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
9	VADEN Oliver	-	-	-	1%	13%	52%	34%
10	JIN Andy	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
11	ZHANG Lucas	-	2%	10%	26%	36%	22%	4%
12	YU William	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%	-
13	HUA Aaron	-	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
14	LEE SIYUN	1%	8%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
15	SHAW Spencer	10%	45%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
16	HE Ryan	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
17	LIU Robert	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%	-
18	JIANG Bohan	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	2%	-
19	LEE JISUNG	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
20	SUN Andy	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
21	XIE Jayden	11%	32%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
22	CHEN Hendrick	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
23	TSENG Lucas	21%	39%	29%	10%	1%	-	-
24	GREENE Max	2%	15%	34%	34%	14%	1%	-
25	HUANG Anthony	10%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
26	BABER Shaheer	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-	-
27	LIU Alex	11%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
28	VERGARA Jace Riley	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	4%
29	HUYNH Matthew	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
30	BOWLES Kevin	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
31	GRYDER Gabriel	2%	18%	37%	30%	11%	2%	-
32	CHOW Kingsley	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
33	PARMAR Veer	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
34	KIM Ethan	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
35	YUN Max	3%	25%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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