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Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 11:30 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MYERS Dean	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%
2	WONG Luke S.	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
3	MCCOSH Evin M.	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
3	NICOLETTI Luca	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
5	ANDERSON Jacob	-	-	1%	12%	40%	46%
6	LING Eddie	-	4%	23%	41%	27%	5%
7	NG Kenneth	-	8%	29%	37%	21%	4%
8	SETLUR Bhrugu	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
9	LI Avery Peihong	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
10	FINNEY Lorenz	-	1%	5%	23%	45%	26%
11	LLIDO Soren	-	-	3%	20%	45%	31%
12	LI Jett	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	17%
13	HARRIS Otto	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
14	FANG Jaden	-	2%	16%	41%	33%	8%
15	SEEDS Edward T.	-	5%	19%	37%	30%	8%
16	CORTRIGHT Skipper	-	2%	13%	36%	37%	12%
17	LEUNG Chu Ming Aiden	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	22%
18	PARK Ryan	-	2%	12%	35%	39%	11%
19	VACA Ricardo E.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
20	TULYAG Azim	4%	24%	40%	25%	6%	-
21	RASMUSSEN Sage	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
22	BLAM Matthew	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
23	CHEN Brian	3%	22%	40%	28%	7%	1%
24	REICHEL Ezra	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
25	GONZALEZ Matthew	1%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
26	AGRAWAL Niki	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
27	COOK Ryan	7%	27%	38%	22%	6%	-
28	CORTRIGHT Joshua C.	-	-	4%	21%	46%	29%
29	PINCHENG Yao	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
30	KIM Daniel Y.	1%	13%	38%	34%	12%	1%
31	CHAVEZ Morgan A.	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	8%
32	YU Leo	3%	18%	40%	30%	9%	1%
33	HUANG Alston	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	2%
34	CHOY Benedict W.	5%	28%	43%	20%	4%	-
35	YORK Lucas	22%	46%	26%	6%	-	-
36	KALAMAS Nikolas	14%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-
37	JIANG Yehong	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
38	GORDON William L.	30%	46%	20%	4%	-	-
39	PADILLA Jacob	1%	15%	43%	33%	8%	1%
40	KUO Jayden	20%	44%	29%	7%	1%	-
41	HOHN dana	95%	5%	-	-	-	-
42	PARK Brandon	< 1%	14%	39%	34%	11%	1%
43	BOUCHARD Kai	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
44	RODRIGUEZ VINCENT	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
45	GENER Alejandro	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
45	BOYNTON Alex	36%	47%	16%	2%	-	-
47	MORTON Joshua	9%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-
47	LABOVITCH David	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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