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Div II Men's Saber

Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 12:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CORTEZ Christopher	-	-	2%	11%	37%	50%
2	LUTHRA Arjun	-	-	-	4%	18%	43%	34%
3	PIWOWAR Alex	-	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
3	ROBINSON William	-	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
5	FERNANDEZ Liam	-	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
6	DOLAN Charles R.	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
7	GINSBERG Jordan	-	2%	11%	30%	35%	18%	3%
8	KAPOOR Tanmay	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
9	NOURELDIN Gabriel	-	-	2%	10%	31%	39%	18%
10	SPOSATO Andrew P.	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
11	PERRON Robert	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
12	BURGESS-LINDEN Ian	1%	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-
13	MCCARTHY Devan	-	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
14	GOLDMAN Robert	1%	14%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-
15	STAMIS Kyle	1%	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
16	KASPER Aaron	-	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
17	VILLARREAL Mateo	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%
18	BROU Inkosi	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
19	CHENG Brandon	3%	17%	35%	32%	13%	1%
20	SAHAY Kenji	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
21	DAHL Chris	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	5%
22	DUMOULIN Gabriel	2%	25%	40%	25%	7%	1%	-
23	WITCZAK Mateus	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
24	MAO Jeremy	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
25	DRUZHININ Michael	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
26	FORMENTI Giulio	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
27	LEBOWITZ Eric	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
28	DIMATTEO Michael	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
29	SHU Richard	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-	-
30	MOULTON Ian	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%	-
31	LIM Brandon	9%	33%	37%	17%	4%	-	-
32	PODDAR Shameek	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
33	GUEVARA Alexander	-	15%	42%	32%	9%	1%
33	LIBBY Benjamin	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-
35	TERENTIEV Max	1%	11%	29%	37%	20%	2%
36	DESAUTELS Connor	2%	20%	40%	29%	8%	1%	-
37	KUMAR Shivai	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
38	MCCALL Aidan	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
39	SWIFT Owen	8%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-	-
40	WEISS Toby	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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