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Y-14 Women's Épée

Friday, September 23, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Berto Center / Also known as Felicity School - Deerfield, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WATTANAKIT Anda	-	-	3%	14%	40%	43%
2	LEE Olivia	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	LEE Camilla	-	3%	18%	41%	31%	7%
3	NIX Reagan	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	21%
5	ZHAN Nancy	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	12%
6	BECKMAN Ana	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
7	NGUYEN Ella	2%	21%	41%	29%	7%	< 1%
8	FERREIRA DE MELO Adriana	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
9	MALLAVARPU saanvi	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
10	BEAVER Ava	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
11	ZHAO Alina	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	12%	2%
12	LIN Ariel	-	3%	17%	40%	35%	5%
13	IYER Ishana	2%	11%	30%	35%	19%	3%
14	CHUANG Ramona	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
15	SUN Zeyu	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	2%
16	SCHMITT Harper	4%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
17	WANG Ziqiao	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
18	NEELAM Navya	-	6%	26%	42%	22%	4%
19	QI Julieanne	7%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%
20	XU Serena	1%	10%	26%	35%	22%	6%	1%
21	FRANGER Macy	1%	7%	27%	42%	21%	3%
22	HOY Emmarose	1%	13%	36%	37%	13%	1%
23	MCKENNA Analise	5%	24%	41%	24%	5%	-
24	TAM Connie	13%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
25	KROPP Anne	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
26	ELTERMAN Kate	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
27	MIRZA Annoshae	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-
28	BI Michelle	4%	29%	41%	22%	4%	-
29	WANG Victoria	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
30	STERN Savannah	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
31	WORKNEH Lulit	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
32	VARAN Kateryna	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
33	HO Darlene	2%	16%	37%	34%	10%	1%
34	PARK Elli	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
35	SMITH Stephanie	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-
36	BAILEY RaJohn	7%	33%	39%	18%	3%	-
37	SIMMONS Trinity	6%	36%	39%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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