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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CULLIVAN Justice	-	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
2	JI Aidan Y.	-	-	-	2%	16%	46%	35%
3	LU Yikai	-	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
3	ZHAO Bowen	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
5	MCISAAC Finn	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	27%	5%
6	SANTOS Carlos R.	-	6%	27%	42%	22%	3%
7	REEVES Liam	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
8	XIAO Bowen	-	-	6%	31%	42%	18%	2%
9	FLYNN Ian	-	-	-	3%	19%	47%	32%
10	PALMA Matthew Dominic	-	-	1%	11%	42%	45%
11	CHOE Jayden K.	-	-	1%	12%	40%	42%	5%
12	GOGOI Vir K.	-	-	-	3%	22%	47%	28%
13	FU Steven	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
14	TSAO Lukas	-	1%	7%	30%	45%	17%
15	BOYKO Miles	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	17%	2%
16	METTE Russell	-	3%	18%	41%	32%	6%
17	REAUME Nate	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
18	HEYBOER Jason	6%	26%	40%	23%	5%	-	-
19	KUE Temujin	7%	32%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
20	NYKAMP Caleb	-	-	5%	25%	46%	22%	1%
21	VANOYEN Dominick	-	6%	31%	42%	19%	2%
22	RIECK Brennan	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	1%
23	RAJPAL Alastair	-	1%	9%	37%	39%	13%	1%
24	OLSON Emerson	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
25	WAKEHAM Paul	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%	-
26	BARCA Bryant	-	5%	24%	43%	23%	4%	-
27	WEI Thomas	45%	43%	12%	1%	-	-	-
28	IRVINE Brody	6%	23%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
29	DUNLAP Ian	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
30	LOCKWOOD Jacob	10%	38%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
31	GLOVER George	16%	52%	26%	5%	-	-
32	BREWNER Ethan	29%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
33	KOKKER Thomas	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%	-
34	HE Tyler	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-
35	WAKEHAM Timothy	16%	44%	32%	7%	1%	-	-
36	SANDERS Jack	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
37	HOWLAND Jonas	16%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
38	WEISS Quintin	29%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
39	MARK IAN	14%	44%	36%	6%	-	-	-
40	PEAKE Lucas	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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