October NAC

Div I Men's Saber

Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Minneapolis, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 DERSHWITZ Eli R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 65%
2 FERJANI fares 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 67%
3 WILLIAMS Grant W. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 76%
3 HEATHCOCK Colin Yang Siqi 100% 100% 94% 70% 30% 4%
5 ELSISSY Ziad A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 80%
6 MORRILL William 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 62% 22%
7 DODDO Andrew 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 65%
8 YUN Jaesun 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 13% 1%
9 HOMER Daryl D. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 77%
10 MACKIEWICZ Andrew A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 84%
11 SILBERZWEIG Jordan H. 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 42% 10%
12 SMITH Jared C. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 37%
13 COHEN Josef A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 67%
14 TE VELDE Noah C. 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 37% 7%
15 HOLZ Daniel 100% 99% 89% 63% 29% 7% 1%
16 HEATHCOCK Antonio 100% 100% 98% 82% 45% 10%
17 SARON Mitchell S. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 77%
18 HARLEY Colby A. 100% 100% 98% 84% 44% 7%
19 CALLAHAN Jaden P. 100% 100% 98% 85% 49% 15% 2%
20 BOOTH Zaheer 100% 100% 100% 96% 75% 36% 7%
21 CHIARA ANGELO M. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 23%
22 ANGLADE Junior Ronald (RJ) E. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 32%
23 FERJANI Ahmed 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 47% 9%
24 HARVEY Nicholas J. 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 31% 3%
25 TANN Justin 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 5% -
26 CAUCHON Francois 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 56%
27 CHON Taylor A. 100% 97% 82% 48% 16% 2%
28 YANG Ziyi 100% 99% 90% 64% 28% 6% -
29 MOON Sean H. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 53% 9%
30 BOUNACHADA Zacharia 100% 95% 64% 24% 4% -
31 REN James 100% 82% 44% 13% 2% - -
32 DESROSIERS Olivier 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 39% 4%
33 LACAZE Alexandre 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 54% 12%
34 REN Junming 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 54% 7%
35 YEN Darren 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 17%
36 LINDER James (Luke) L. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 72%
37 THOMPSON Khalil A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 81%
38 HUSSAIN Faaris 100% 100% 96% 81% 51% 20% 3%
39 ARMIJO Gabriel K. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 38%
40 LIU kelly 100% 98% 87% 57% 24% 5% -
41 CZYZEWSKI Konrad R. 100% 100% 96% 82% 51% 18% 3%
42 DENNER Lysander H. 100% 100% 95% 76% 40% 9%
43 LUKASHENKO Darii 100% 99% 83% 44% 12% 1%
44 ERMAKOV Lev 100% 99% 90% 61% 22% 3%
45 TRAVERS Samir T. 100% 100% 100% 97% 80% 38% 3%
46 ZIELINSKI Nicholaus M. 100% 100% 99% 95% 76% 42% 10%
47 DOLEGIEWICZ Filip 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 40%
48 BENAVRAM Lev C. 100% 100% 95% 80% 50% 19% 3%
49 LIANG Connor 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 12%
50 SOHN Kevin J. 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 33% 7%
51 WEI Andrew 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 60% 9%
52 KOGAN Benjamin 100% 99% 94% 73% 36% 6% -
53 WALKER Dalton F. 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 57% 20%
54 KIM Stephen E. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 21%
55 BUERGENTHAL Aaron P. 100% 100% 96% 80% 48% 14% 1%
56 CHEONG Heonjae 100% 93% 68% 33% 10% 1% -
57 DENNER Maximilian P. 100% 97% 78% 36% 7% -
58 BABAYEV Gabriel A. 100% 99% 90% 65% 30% 8% 1%
59 PAN Jerry 100% 99% 93% 71% 38% 11% 1%
60 SIMAK Joseph P. 100% 100% 95% 78% 43% 12% 1%
61 YUN Jake 100% 99% 89% 62% 26% 5% -
62 WU Roger (Mengke) 100% 98% 86% 59% 27% 7% 1%
63 JIANG Anthony 100% 95% 57% 17% 2% -
64 CHAN Matthew 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 25% 4%
65 MCBRIDE Jackson R. 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 49% 8%
66 LILOV Neil 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 27%
67 PAN Jack (Yuxiang) 100% 100% 99% 93% 68% 24% 1%
68 DINU Nicholas D. 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 46% 8%
69 WILLIAMS Nolan E. 100% 100% 100% 96% 82% 49% 14%
70 SHOMAN Zachary 100% 96% 77% 45% 17% 3% -
71 DHINGRA Gian K. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
72 BERMAN Luca 100% 97% 81% 49% 18% 4% -
73 NADILE Henry V. 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 42% 11%
74 FERNANDEZ Rodrigo 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 9% 1%
75 HUANG Ethan F. 100% 98% 86% 58% 24% 5% -
76 MICHELL Bailey 100% 94% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
77 CHAVES Matthew J. 100% 96% 73% 32% 7% 1% -
78 GEFELL Andrew P. 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 23% 2%
79 LINSKY Matthew 100% 100% 99% 95% 80% 48% 14%
80 CHOI HYUNSEOK 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 42% 10%
81 WONG Ryan 100% 97% 81% 47% 16% 3% -
82 WOOD Elden S. 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 46% 12%
83 HJERPE Wade H. 100% 99% 86% 55% 21% 4% -
84 LEE Aydan J. 100% 96% 78% 43% 13% 2% -
85 GILSON Lucas B. 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
86 TONG ZACHARY 100% 97% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
87 SHIRPAL Oleksandr 100% 93% 66% 30% 8% 1% -
88 STATEN-LUSTY Silas J. 100% 100% 99% 90% 65% 26% 3%
89 GUAY-TARDIF Xavier 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 33% 6%
90 JI Cody Walter 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 27%
91 LEE Justin 100% 100% 94% 73% 36% 7% -
92 BURGUNDER Quinten (Quin) A. 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 28%
93 BIERNACKI Maciej L. 100% 100% 100% 95% 75% 36% 7%
94 SHAHZAD Azlan A. 100% 83% 42% 10% 1% - -
95 FENG Leo 100% 95% 72% 37% 11% 1% -
95 POPE Nico 100% 99% 89% 60% 23% 4% -
97 ATTIG Will T. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 55% 15%
98 KIM Shaun M. 100% 99% 93% 68% 29% 6% -
99 ZHANG Derek 100% 88% 56% 22% 4% - -
100 DRESSELL Wiley 100% 98% 82% 49% 18% 3% -
101 WANG Eric Y. 100% 99% 93% 72% 36% 9% 1%
102 XU William 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 12% 1%
103 WITEK Bernard J. 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 27% 5%
104 HONG Vincent Q. 100% 100% 96% 78% 44% 12% 1%
105 ZENG Noah 100% 80% 37% 8% 1% - -
106 HONG Steven 100% 93% 68% 31% 7% - -
107 BARNETT Adam 100% 99% 92% 69% 34% 9% 1%
107 MICLAUS Justin 100% 95% 74% 40% 12% 2% -
109 PRIMUS Nazir 100% 95% 74% 38% 11% 1% -
110 PATIL Aaryan A. 100% 94% 69% 34% 10% 1% -
111 SO Hananiah 100% 100% 97% 85% 56% 19% 1%
112 ROBERTS Sam 100% 99% 90% 63% 28% 7% -
113 ATANASSOV Vasil V. 100% 96% 74% 36% 9% 1% -
114 BULL Anderson 100% 94% 68% 31% 7% 1% -
115 WANG Nicolas 100% 85% 49% 15% 2% - -
116 CHO Justin W. 100% 100% 95% 79% 49% 18% 3%
117 PANDEY Neil 100% 87% 53% 19% 4% - -
118 JEFFORDS Alexander 100% 99% 90% 63% 28% 7% 1%
119 MAKLIN Edward P. 100% 85% 50% 17% 3% -
120 WILSON Jude 100% 99% 88% 57% 18% -
121 HAMMERSTROM Jared 100% 99% 91% 62% 21% 1%
122 ESCUETA Tony V. 100% 100% 94% 73% 38% 9% -
123 WIND Nicky E. 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% 1%
124 WOODWARD Connor 100% 93% 64% 27% 6% 1% -
125 HOLZ William A. 100% 95% 73% 40% 13% 2% -
126 VOCHOSKA Aidan F. 100% 99% 93% 72% 37% 11% 1%
127 HAN William 100% 79% 38% 9% 1% - -
128 GHAYALOD ansh 100% 97% 80% 44% 13% 2% -
129 LIM William J. 100% 85% 50% 18% 3% - -
130 MIKA Casper 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 12%
131 DENG Andrew 100% 98% 87% 58% 23% 4% -
132 WUN William 100% 95% 71% 35% 9% 1%
133 LE Hayden 100% 97% 80% 43% 11% 1%
134 MIYASAKI-CASTRO Masanobu 100% 72% 30% 7% 1% - -
135 BERRIO Carter E. 100% 96% 78% 44% 14% 2% -
136 MEHTA Sachin N. 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 37% 9%
137 CHEONG Heonjun 100% 95% 72% 36% 11% 2% -
138 XU Andrew 100% 92% 66% 32% 9% 1% -
139 HANEY Vincent 100% 91% 64% 31% 9% 1% -
140 ZHU Charlie 100% 84% 45% 12% 1% - -
141 RAI Avin 100% 100% 98% 90% 65% 30% 6%
142 BOLTON Braydon A. 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 26% 5%
143 REN Richard 100% 81% 43% 14% 2% - -
144 GHENEA George Philipe 100% 93% 68% 33% 9% 1% -
144 SLASTIN Andrew 100% 97% 78% 42% 13% 2% -
146 VO Minh Q. 100% 71% 29% 7% 1% - -
147 WANG Charles 100% 94% 72% 36% 10% 1% -
148 BAE Jason I. 100% 94% 71% 37% 11% 2% -
149 EFSTATHIOU Evangelos L. 100% 81% 43% 14% 3% - -
149 MEDVEDEV Michail D. 100% 84% 48% 16% 3% - -
151 MCCARTHY Gabriel 100% 92% 61% 22% 3% - -
152 ZHOU Miles 100% 92% 63% 24% 4% - -
153 KOLASA Thomas M. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 54% 15%
153 EICHHORN Lukas H. 100% 94% 72% 36% 10% 1% -
155 DODRILL Grant 100% 100% 98% 90% 68% 33% 7%
156 KIM Andrew H. 100% 93% 68% 32% 9% 1% -
157 NAZLYMOV Andrei 100% 99% 86% 55% 21% 4% -
158 NOBLE Colin 100% 96% 77% 40% 11% 1% -
159 RAMPAZZO Luca 100% 100% 100% 94% 70% 27%
160 ZHANG Ethan W. 100% 64% 21% 3% - -
161 CHTERENTAL Alex 100% 89% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
162 MARGULIES William 100% 90% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
163 ROBINSON William 100% 83% 44% 13% 2% - -
164 KIM Alexander M. 100% 94% 68% 31% 7% 1% -
165 WOODWARD Dylan P. 100% 98% 85% 56% 25% 6% 1%
165 STURN Oliver 100% 93% 68% 33% 9% 1% -
167 MORRILL Justin 100% 93% 68% 33% 9% 1% -
167 OH Triton 100% 92% 63% 25% 4% - -
169 LINDHOLM Oliver S. 100% 91% 62% 27% 7% 1% -
169 WANG Robert 100% 87% 53% 19% 3% - -
171 HO Kaden M. 100% 99% 88% 55% 16% 2% -
171 BARBER William S. 100% 99% 89% 60% 25% 4% -
171 DIACOS Jordan 100% 90% 62% 28% 8% 1% -
174 LUO George F. 100% 95% 74% 41% 13% 2% -
175 MORALES Jonathan 100% 70% 28% 6% 1% - -
175 CHEN Evan P. 100% 90% 58% 22% 4% - -
175 PAN Alex 100% 65% 23% 4% - - -
178 LO Konnor 100% 82% 43% 12% 2% - -
179 FREYRE DE ANDRADE Elian R. 100% 94% 69% 34% 10% 2% -
180 STONE Esmond A. 100% 87% 52% 18% 4% - -
181 SKINNER Graham B. 100% 99% 90% 65% 31% 8% 1%
182 HONG Rubin 100% 79% 37% 8% 1% - -
183 HAN Daniel Y. 100% 81% 39% 9% 1% - -
184 LI Minghan 100% 95% 71% 33% 8% 1% -
185 MAHAPATRA SAMARTH 100% 48% 12% 1% - - -
186 LIN Daniel 100% 88% 56% 23% 5% 1% -
187 LIU Mingyang Ryan 100% 89% 52% 16% 2% -
188 CHIN Matthew W. 100% 95% 72% 37% 10% 1% -
188 SHOMAN Noah 100% 98% 85% 51% 15% 2% -
190 QIU Nathan 100% 93% 66% 29% 6% - -
190 KOTOV Leonid 100% 86% 47% 12% 2% - -
190 TENG MATTHEW 100% 86% 51% 18% 3% - -
193 ZHENG Edward L. 100% 90% 58% 23% 5% - -
193 LASORSA Matthew 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 10% 1%
195 GLOZMAN Justin 100% 58% 17% 2% - -
196 YEN Preston 100% 90% 60% 24% 5% -
196 KILGALLEN William 100% 28% 3% - - -
198 GUAN Luke 100% 87% 54% 20% 4% - -
199 ESCUETA Jr Antonio V. 100% 83% 37% 8% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.