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Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 1:00 PM

The Edge Sports and Arts Academy - Twinsburg, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Ethan	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
2	EDWARDS Maxon	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
3	GUTH Joseph	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
3	HAN Derek	-	-	2%	16%	47%	35%
5	STRINGER David	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
6	ALLEN Henry G.	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
7	ZHAO Nathan	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
8	RUSSELL Paul	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	8%
9	MASSIMINO Andrew	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
10	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
11	COPELAND Nigel	2%	16%	39%	33%	10%	1%
12	LI Joseph	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
13	SLUSHER Gideon	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	14%
14	GOODLIN Sean	7%	30%	40%	19%	4%	-
15	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	15%
16	TAMIYA Masao	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
17	MAVANI Krishna	2%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	< 1%
18	KIM Daniel	-	-	5%	21%	41%	29%	4%
19	FANG Haoyu	2%	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%
20	KNIBBE Nathan	1%	8%	26%	35%	22%	6%	1%
21	ZHENG Marcus	1%	8%	28%	39%	20%	4%
22	MODADUGU Aryan	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
23	FRASER Rhys	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
24	MOLDOVEANU Roman	3%	16%	37%	34%	9%	1%	-
25	LATORRE Leonardo	9%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
26	WINGLER Cole	7%	34%	42%	14%	2%	-
27	ZMUDA Aiden	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
28	LIU Yinhong	-	4%	18%	39%	31%	8%
29	NAZARIO Dominic	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
30	LEE Ian	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
31	RIALE Toren	1%	8%	31%	39%	18%	3%	-
32	FINDLAY Zachary	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
33	SUN Henry	4%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
34	MAIOLI Daniel	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%
35	LIANG Daniel	-	1%	11%	33%	38%	16%	1%
36	POWELL Sean	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
37	RICHARDS Blake	36%	41%	18%	4%	-	-
38	DONG Ethan	2%	16%	39%	33%	9%	1%
39	MILLER Charles	5%	44%	37%	12%	2%	-
40	OTTER Samuel	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
41	WENGER Liam	20%	45%	28%	7%	1%	-
41	MCCANDLISH Drake	26%	46%	24%	4%	-	-
43	DIFRANK Tae	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
44	TURNER Jackson	62%	31%	6%	1%	-	-	-
45	IBRAHIM Khaden	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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