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Cadet Men's Épée

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG YuJian	-	-	-	1%	9%	42%	47%
2	MCDERMOTT Brian	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
3	YOO David D.	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
3	SHENG Patrick Y.	-	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
5	KIM Juni C.	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
6	KRAVIT Connor B.	-	-	-	5%	27%	47%	20%
7	MORSE Tyler	-	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
8	WU Jason	1%	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%
9	LEE Noah	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%
10	TONG Chihao	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
11	KANG Michael H.	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
12	SPANO Gideon S.	7%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
13	LONCAR Luka E.	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
14	SMITH Nicholas S.	-	3%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
15	SINGCUENCO Lance	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
16	SALERNO Gaetano	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
17	LI Jeffrey	1%	7%	25%	36%	23%	7%	1%
18	GILLIS George	3%	21%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
19	POZOVSKIY Mitchell R.	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2%
20	DIAS-LALCACA Kieran P.	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
21	MACARTY Jordan T.	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
22	GOHEL Dayus T.	-	-	4%	16%	35%	34%	12%
23	SIDDIQUI Humza K.	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
26	JIN Owen	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
27	WANG Eric S	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
28	LAI Coby	27%	44%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
29	SKIFFINGTON Sam	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%	-
30	LAVENSTEIN Kinley V.	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
31	LIU Jack	1%	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
32	KARAMANIAN Nicholas	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-	-
33	SAMMS-HAY Cameron	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%	-
34	COX Gavin V.	4%	19%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
35	MISHIMA Torata	16%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
36	KOBI Samuel	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
37	SHAH Maximilian A.	-	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
38	BARSEMIAN Alexander	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
38	WU Joseph	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
40	WIEDERHORN Ethan	34%	46%	17%	3%	-	-	-
41	ZHANG Franklin	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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