The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Escrime d'Halloween RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, October 16, 2022 at 12:00 PM

The Edge Sports and Arts Academy - Twinsburg, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUTH Joseph	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
2	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	15%
3	RUSSELL Paul	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
3	LU Alex	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
5	WEI JR Shan	1%	9%	31%	37%	19%	3%
6	KNIBBE Nathan	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	10%	1%
7	LIU Yinhong	-	-	4%	21%	41%	28%	6%
8	ZMUDA Aiden	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	22%	3%
9	LATORRE Leonardo	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	3%	-
10	WENGER Liam	-	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	3%
11	ZHENG Marcus	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
12	GE Felix Fei	2%	12%	30%	34%	17%	4%	-
13	WANG Caleb	1%	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
14	IBRAHIM Khaden	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
15	FANG Haoyu	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
16	FRASER Rhys	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
17	MCGRATH Milo	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
18	DIFRANK Avery	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
19	DEPP Edward	15%	38%	34%	12%	1%	-
20	TURNER Jackson	27%	46%	23%	4%	-	-	-
20	DELA CRUZ Lorenzo	-	-	4%	18%	40%	34%	4%
22	WENGER Rowan	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
23	JAMESON Llewellyn	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
24	DIFRANK Tae	1%	8%	26%	37%	22%	5%	-
25	BILLIET Greyson	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-	-
26	CALESHU Bauer	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
27	LINDSAY Jonah	1%	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	RZEPKA Johnathan	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
29	JACOBS Samuel	2%	22%	45%	26%	5%	-
30	PECHOTA Augustus	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	6%	-
31	REYNOLDS Oliver	< 1%	19%	47%	27%	6%	-	-
32	ROSENTHAL Hugh	8%	29%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
33	HARDWICK Alex	28%	46%	21%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.