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Valhalla 1

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, October 22, 2022 at 9:00 AM

Valkyrie Fencing Club - Pleasant Grove, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SEAL Max R.	-	-	6%	36%	58%
2	CARRIER Gabriel	12%	35%	35%	15%	2%
3	WALL Peter	-	6%	27%	47%	20%
3	SEAL Cameron I.	1%	17%	45%	31%	6%
5	MADSEN Jr Eric W.	-	4%	27%	55%	15%
6	BAIXAULI RUIZ Carme	1%	8%	27%	41%	24%
7	SEAL Julie T.	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
8	CHRISTENSEN Parker	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%
9	HUANG Paul	-	7%	34%	47%	12%
10	FERGUSON Jason	13%	45%	35%	6%	-
11	MILLER Chance	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
12	LIMA Roberto	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
13	ZAMELIS Madelyn	6%	33%	41%	18%	3%	-
14	WALL AAron	5%	27%	44%	21%	3%
15	NORRIS Graham	1%	12%	37%	42%	8%
16	THOMSON Hyrum	5%	30%	46%	18%	1%
17	MERRIAM Isaiah	2%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
18	WHITESIDES Ella	1%	14%	44%	34%	8%
19	WHITESIDES Abby	22%	46%	26%	5%	-
20	FERGUSON Aliya	24%	49%	23%	3%	-
21	WALL John	2%	17%	50%	27%	4%
22	FRANCIS Peter	2%	16%	40%	35%	6%
23	KENNINGTON Abby	4%	23%	43%	25%	5%
24	HANSEN Sebastian	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
25	JEFFCOAT Tim	2%	14%	38%	36%	10%
26	RAEDER William	1%	12%	36%	41%	10%
27	BOGGS Kastor	-	2%	15%	44%	39%
28	WHITESIDES Scott	13%	53%	30%	5%	-
28	NORRIS Erin	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
30	MOELLER Kylie	3%	19%	35%	30%	11%	2%
31	PADDOCK Hannah	56%	36%	7%	-	-
31	LITTLE Alex	36%	45%	17%	2%	-
33	WORMELL Brendan	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
34	FRANCIS America	37%	43%	17%	3%	-
35	YUN Merrilyn	11%	42%	35%	11%	1%
36	DUNN Riley	14%	43%	33%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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