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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Kyle P.	-	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
2	GULCHIN Mark (Yerma)	-	-	-	-	6%	31%	63%
3	SIMONOV Timofey	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
3	ZENG Rick	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
5	CHENG Logan	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	22%
6	TOOMRE Kai	-	-	1%	8%	30%	46%	15%
7	HUANG Jinyao	-	-	5%	20%	40%	30%	5%
8	XIE Jicheng	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
9	WONG Jacob W.	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
10	KOVACS Harrison	-	1%	7%	27%	39%	22%	4%
11	POLEBOYINA Amrit	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
12	LU Hansen	-	2%	13%	31%	36%	16%	2%
13	SICAT Justin	7%	25%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
14	ONIK Ari N.	-	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	7%
15	HAN Alexander	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
16	CZARNECKI Thomas	1%	9%	30%	40%	18%	1%
17	TANG Royce	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
18	BAKSHI Aman	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
19	LEE Thomas	7%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
20	KRZYWON Dylan	25%	46%	24%	5%	-	-	-
21	HELMY Richard	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	4%	-
22	MARTIRE Luca	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%	-
23	BAS Jonathan	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
24	CHEN kenneth	7%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
25	MANDELBAUM Oliver	2%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	1%
26	MA Lucas	2%	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
27	YU Haochen	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
28	NABASSOUA Djibril	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
29	GRACEY Gavin	-	-	2%	10%	27%	39%	22%
30	JAZWINSKI Ryan	2%	12%	29%	33%	18%	5%	-
31	WANG Luke	3%	22%	41%	27%	6%	-
32	KINGSLEY Griffin	-	6%	24%	41%	26%	2%
33	HARRY Landen	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
34	BEYDOUN Sam	-	3%	19%	38%	29%	9%	1%
35	JIANG Kody	18%	39%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
36	LIN Qianzhong	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
37	BAI Austin	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
38	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
39	HARRY Ryan	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
40	PITERBARG Lev	35%	47%	16%	2%	-	-	-
41	ZHANG Ethan	8%	27%	34%	22%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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