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Y-10 Men's Saber

Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 3:30 PM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUANG Alex F.	-	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
2	BONETTI Brayden	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
3	KUSHKOV Daniel	-	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	18%
3	LIN Philip T.	1%	29%	42%	22%	5%	-
5	DUCKETT Myles	-	2%	21%	52%	23%	3%
6	KONG Alan	-	12%	38%	36%	12%	1%
7	ALLARDYCE Lachlan	26%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
8	CHEN Jonathan	1%	7%	21%	33%	27%	11%	1%
9	KOGAN Yelisey L.	-	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
10	SHIPITSIN Alexander	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
11	PRIEUR Christian F.	-	-	3%	23%	58%	16%
12	GRIGORESCU Alexander	-	-	1%	4%	17%	40%	38%
13	IDRISSI Idris	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
14	SUGIURA Samuel	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%	1%
15	SUBRAMANIAM Oliver C.	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
16	OH Aster	5%	20%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
17	WAXLER Ryan	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
17	CLARK Gabriel	-	1%	5%	17%	34%	32%	11%
19	SAGE Sebastian	-	-	6%	28%	49%	16%
20	ALLARDYCE Graham	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
21	CARRINGTON IV William T.	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
22	ATWOOD Griffin	-	2%	8%	23%	34%	26%	8%
23	NARDINI Nathanael P.	-	11%	37%	38%	12%	1%
24	HAPP Braeden	52%	46%	3%	< 1%	-	-
25	DIGIACOMO Dennis G.	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
26	LIU Ryan	-	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
27	ALAVE Kyle	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
28	KUSHNIR Zack	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%	1%
29	WONG Caleb W.	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
30	MIRKIS Levi	1%	11%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
31	PIERRE Noah	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
32	LEE Andrew	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	6%	1%
33	SAKMANN Sebastian	1%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%	-
34	GONG Jerry	1%	6%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
35	JUNG Ethan	5%	29%	38%	21%	6%	1%	-
36	BRANDT Jaden	1%	8%	22%	32%	25%	10%	2%
37	CLARK Aram	-	-	4%	19%	43%	35%
38	URSU Marcel T.	-	4%	51%	36%	8%	1%
39	CHIU Vincent	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%
41	ZHANG Ray	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%	-
42	WILLIAMS Corey	5%	24%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
43	CUKIERMAN Benjamin	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
44	LIU Alexander	89%	10%	-	-	-	-
45	SARBU Eric	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
46	SARWAHI Viraat	37%	53%	10%	1%	-	-
47	SHAH Kabir	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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