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Alabama Division Circuit Fencing Competition

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 12:45 PM

Covington Recreation Center - Opelika, AL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	VAUGHAN Norah	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
2	WILLIAMS Ken	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
3	VINEL Alexander	-	4%	22%	43%	27%	5%
3	DING Tommy	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	14%
5	FAN Jacob	1%	11%	33%	37%	15%	2%
6	TAN Isabella	1%	19%	58%	20%	1%
7	CURTIS William	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
8	JEONG Aaron	18%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
9	ELKIN David	7%	37%	39%	15%	2%	-
10	PARSONS John	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%	1%
11	BROWN Lily	5%	27%	44%	22%	3%
12	HEAD Joshua Ethan	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
13	KEITH Jakhari	17%	48%	30%	5%	-
14	ROBINSON Gabriel	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
15	PARISH Levi	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
16	DERRINGER Casey	16%	44%	32%	8%	1%
17	PHORNROEKNGAM Chris	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.