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Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 12:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NG Jonathan	-	1%	4%	15%	32%	34%	14%
2	OH Aster	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
3	SALDARINI Glenn	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
3	CHAMBERS Miles	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
5	LIU Ryan	-	-	1%	9%	32%	46%	11%
6	MCDONALD Finn	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
7	MORGAN Abrahm H.	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
8	AGARWAAL Yohan	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
9	SONG Aidan	-	1%	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
10	DAI Zihou	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
11	IMANUEL Ethan	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
12	YOOK Isaac	-	2%	11%	33%	41%	13%
13	LAMTAN Christoffer	5%	19%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
14	LIN Brendan	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%
15	ZHAO Royce	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
16	BAI Evan	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	27%	7%
17	DOSTAL Maximilian	2%	14%	35%	35%	12%	1%
18	LOTTNER Samuel	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%	-
19	LAU Kyrus	-	5%	23%	39%	26%	7%	-
20	PAI Ayan	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%	-
21	CHANG Timothy	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
22	MIAO Heqi	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
23	MHLEY Gavin	2%	12%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
24	SADHU Neiyam	-	3%	13%	31%	33%	16%	3%
25	FRANCOIS Gabriel	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
26	SUH Leo	17%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
27	LOSQUADRO Joseph	3%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%	-
28	SHINCHUK Jacob	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
29	HALPER Benjamin	11%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
30	AVERY Marcus	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
31	SAYAR Luke	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
32	TITOV Zachary	-	4%	16%	30%	31%	16%	3%
33	FOUX Jonathan	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
34	LVOFF Leo	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	1%	-
35	CHAN Ewan	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
36	WU Vincent	3%	16%	35%	34%	13%	1%
37	LEE Ivan	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
38	LIN Jacob	-	2%	11%	28%	36%	20%	4%
39	KIM Noah	11%	35%	37%	14%	2%	-
40	SUN Stephen	11%	34%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
41	CHEN Vince	-	1%	8%	30%	40%	19%	2%
42	HUANG Bret	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
43	FIROOZI Alex	33%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
44	LEE Jason	8%	27%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
45	YOUNG Parker	6%	25%	37%	25%	7%	1%	-
46	TURI Szilas	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
47	DATTILIO Aidan	31%	43%	21%	5%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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