The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

December NAC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 2:00 PM

Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 DESROSIERS Olivier - - - 2% 15% 42% 41%
2 TRAVERS Samir T. - - - 1% 8% 34% 57%
3 DHINGRA Gian K. - - - 2% 11% 38% 49%
3 PAN Jack (Yuxiang) - - - 1% 10% 37% 51%
5 TONG ZACHARY - - 2% 10% 28% 39% 20%
6 JI Cody Walter - - 1% 11% 39% 48%
7 SIMAK Joseph P. - - 1% 7% 27% 43% 23%
8 ATANASSOV Vasil V. - 1% 6% 22% 38% 27% 6%
9 SILBERZWEIG Jordan H. - - - - 1% 17% 81%
10 WU Roger (Mengke) - - - 4% 21% 45% 30%
11 MORRILL William - - - 1% 9% 37% 53%
12 LILOV Neil - - - - 3% 27% 69%
13 POPE Nico - 1% 9% 30% 42% 18%
14 WANG Robert - 1% 11% 32% 37% 16% 2%
15 STONE Esmond A. - 1% 11% 36% 37% 13% 1%
16 HARVEY Nicholas J. - - - 2% 12% 39% 47%
17 CALLAHAN Jaden P. - - - 1% 8% 36% 56%
18 KIM Alexander M. - 1% 7% 25% 38% 24% 5%
19 LIANG Connor - - - 1% 9% 38% 52%
20 NOBLE Colin - 5% 21% 37% 29% 8%
21 WOOD Elden S. - - - 5% 31% 64%
22 BERRIO Carter E. - 1% 10% 36% 41% 11%
23 YUN Jaesun - - 2% 14% 42% 41%
24 PAN Jerry - 1% 6% 24% 42% 27%
25 MAROUF Eyad - - - - 5% 33% 61%
26 LAI Adam J. - - - 1% 11% 41% 47%
27 BABAYEV Gabriel A. - - 2% 11% 33% 42% 12%
28 BUCHMANN Finn D. - 1% 6% 20% 34% 30% 10%
29 DENNER Lysander H. - - - 3% 17% 42% 38%
30 FENG Leo - - 4% 20% 40% 30% 6%
31 RAMANAN Jaisimh 1% 11% 29% 35% 20% 5% -
32 BAE Jason I. - 1% 6% 22% 38% 27% 6%
33 FERNANDEZ Rodrigo - - - 3% 17% 42% 38%
34 LINSKY Matthew - - 1% 6% 25% 43% 25%
34 SO Hananiah - - - 4% 21% 44% 31%
36 DENNER Maximilian P. - 1% 8% 27% 41% 23%
36 LEE Justin - - 2% 14% 43% 41%
38 BULL Anderson - - 2% 14% 38% 38% 7%
39 CHAN Matthew - - 1% 9% 27% 40% 22%
40 AVAKIAN Alec - 1% 10% 32% 38% 17% 2%
41 REN Richard - 4% 18% 36% 30% 10% 1%
42 GONZALEZ Emilio A. - - 3% 19% 41% 32% 5%
43 SLASTIN Andrew - - 4% 19% 39% 32% 6%
44 GHAYALOD ansh - 1% 5% 23% 41% 26% 4%
45 HAMMERSTROM Jared - - 1% 7% 28% 46% 18%
45 DENG Andrew - - 4% 19% 39% 30% 8%
47 CHON Taylor A. - - 1% 8% 26% 42% 23%
48 HUANG Connor 2% 13% 34% 34% 14% 2% -
49 EICHHORN Lukas H. - 3% 13% 32% 35% 15% 2%
50 SHOMAN Zachary - 1% 11% 35% 40% 13%
51 ERMAKOV Lev - 1% 7% 27% 42% 23%
52 GHENEA George Philipe - 1% 8% 30% 41% 19% 2%
53 WILLIAMS Nolan E. - - - 1% 9% 37% 53%
54 BARRETO Elliott - - 1% 10% 31% 40% 17%
55 BENAVRAM Lev C. - - - - 6% 33% 61%
56 ZUBATIY Samuel - - 2% 10% 29% 41% 19%
57 MAKLIN Edward P. - 3% 14% 33% 36% 13% 1%
57 KWALWASSER Eric - 1% 10% 33% 37% 16% 2%
59 WANG Eric Y. - - 2% 14% 35% 37% 11%
60 COOK Cole - 6% 23% 35% 25% 9% 1%
61 LI Minghan - 1% 9% 29% 38% 20% 3%
62 GUFFEY Christopher 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 3% -
63 XU William - - 3% 14% 35% 37% 11%
64 PENG Bryan 2% 14% 32% 33% 15% 3% -
65 HONG Vincent Q. - - 1% 5% 22% 43% 29%
66 ANGLADE Junior Ronald (RJ) E. - - - - 3% 23% 74%
67 MARGULIES William - 1% 10% 31% 38% 18% 3%
68 GUAY-TARDIF Xavier - - - 2% 13% 41% 44%
69 BEITEL Noah - 2% 10% 27% 34% 21% 5%
70 SOHN Kevin J. - - - 1% 10% 38% 51%
71 CHOI Silas - - 3% 14% 33% 36% 14%
72 NAZLYMOV Andrei - - 3% 15% 33% 35% 13%
73 LEE Aydan J. - - 2% 13% 33% 38% 14%
74 HUSSAIN Faaris - - 1% 5% 22% 42% 31%
75 KOGAN Benjamin - - 1% 8% 27% 42% 22%
75 JIANG Anthony - - 2% 13% 36% 40% 9%
77 HOUTZ Jackson - 1% 5% 20% 38% 30% 6%
78 OH Triton - 2% 11% 31% 40% 15% 1%
79 CASTRO-SOLIS HUGO ABEL - - - 1% 12% 42% 45%
80 YANG Ziyi - - 2% 9% 28% 40% 20%
81 MAHAPATRA SAMARTH 11% 36% 38% 13% 2% -
82 WONG Ryan - 1% 8% 29% 45% 18%
82 SCHERER Max 1% 13% 37% 36% 12% 1%
84 MICLAUS Justin - 1% 7% 23% 38% 26% 5%
84 PRIMUS Nazir - 1% 7% 25% 39% 24% 4%
86 ZENG Noah - 4% 18% 34% 30% 11% 1%
87 SHAHZAD Azlan A. - 2% 14% 34% 34% 14% 2%
88 TANN Justin - - 3% 15% 33% 35% 14%
89 VO Minh Q. 1% 7% 23% 37% 26% 7% -
89 KROON Lucas - 4% 22% 38% 28% 8% 1%
91 LE Hayden - 1% 6% 22% 38% 27% 6%
92 REYES Xavier M. - 1% 8% 25% 38% 23% 5%
93 KILARI Krish 2% 15% 34% 32% 13% 2% -
94 NOBLE Daniel - - 1% 11% 33% 40% 15%
94 LIM William J. - - 3% 15% 38% 36% 8%
96 STURN Oliver - 4% 20% 35% 28% 10% 1%
96 MIYASAKI-CASTRO Masanobu - 7% 27% 38% 22% 5% -
98 SHIRPAL Oleksandr - 1% 6% 23% 39% 26% 4%
99 PAN Alex - 2% 16% 35% 33% 12% 1%
100 PI Alexander 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 2% -
101 LIU kelly - - 1% 9% 31% 41% 18%
102 KIM Shaun M. - - 4% 20% 44% 32%
103 KOTOV Leonid 1% 12% 34% 35% 15% 2%
104 BOSITA Carson 3% 17% 37% 33% 10% 1%
105 CHIN Matthew W. - 3% 17% 35% 33% 11%
106 GILSON Lucas B. 2% 13% 34% 35% 14% 2%
107 BYON Adrian 6% 27% 37% 23% 6% 1%
108 FERNANDEZ Liam 1% 11% 31% 36% 17% 3% -
109 MEDVEDEV Michail D. 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 3% -
110 CHEONG Heonjae - 1% 10% 28% 36% 21% 4%
111 LO Konnor 2% 14% 31% 32% 16% 4% -
112 WANG Charles - 1% 10% 29% 39% 18% 2%
113 REN James - 2% 13% 29% 33% 19% 4%
114 LINDHOLM Oliver S. - 2% 11% 31% 38% 16% 2%
115 KUMAR Sachit - 5% 24% 38% 25% 6% -
116 GAO Albert - 6% 23% 37% 26% 7% 1%
117 GREENBAUM Ian L. - 1% 6% 22% 40% 29% 2%
117 SHOMAN Noah - 2% 12% 32% 36% 16% 2%
119 WANG Nicolas 1% 7% 25% 35% 24% 7% 1%
120 YUN Jake - - 2% 13% 36% 38% 11%
121 WONG James T. 11% 33% 35% 17% 4% - -
121 MCCARTHY Gabriel - 5% 21% 35% 28% 10% 1%
123 CHEEMA Hyder - 6% 28% 38% 22% 5% -
124 HUROWITZ Max 6% 26% 37% 23% 7% 1% -
125 JOHNSON Langston C. - 1% 7% 27% 42% 23%
126 YAN Kevin 21% 47% 26% 6% - -
127 SWORDS Evan F. - 1% 10% 32% 38% 17% 3%
128 WU Richard 23% 47% 25% 5% - -
129 KUSHKOV Daniel - 2% 16% 38% 33% 10% 1%
130 CHOI HYUNSEOK - - - - 4% 29% 67%
131 CHEONG Heonjun - 3% 20% 38% 30% 9% -
132 DIACOS Jordan - 2% 14% 35% 36% 12%
132 KIM ELIJAH 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% -
134 CADAMBI Roshan - 2% 13% 34% 35% 15% 2%
135 ROBINSON William 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 8% 1%
136 KIM Andrew H. - - 1% 9% 34% 46% 9%
137 ZHU Yuchen (Kevin) 1% 10% 29% 36% 19% 4% -
138 DOLAN Charles R. 1% 10% 30% 37% 19% 3% -
139 ROSBERG Dashiell W. - 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 2%
140 WEBER Mattias A. 3% 16% 32% 31% 15% 3% -
141 JEFFORDS Alexander - - - 5% 23% 46% 26%
142 BERA Enzo 2% 14% 34% 34% 14% 2% -
143 HAN William 1% 8% 29% 38% 20% 4% -
144 LUO George F. - 5% 21% 38% 28% 7%
145 HOLZ William A. - 4% 17% 37% 33% 9%
146 GRATHWOL-SEAR Oliver 6% 25% 38% 24% 7% 1%
146 XU Luke 1% 9% 32% 39% 18% 2%
148 THORNHILL Kwasi 1% 13% 35% 34% 15% 3% -
149 HUANG Ethan F. - - 2% 12% 32% 38% 16%
150 CHEN Evan P. - 3% 16% 33% 32% 13% 2%
151 PANDEY Neil - 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2%
152 XU Andrew - 2% 10% 28% 37% 20% 4%
152 SU Landon - 4% 21% 39% 27% 7% 1%
154 CRAIG Samuel 4% 23% 37% 26% 9% 1% -
155 PATIL Aaryan A. - 3% 19% 39% 30% 9% 1%
156 TAO Jeffrey - 1% 12% 32% 37% 16% 1%
157 KAPOOR Tanmay 16% 46% 29% 8% 1% - -
158 KILGALLEN William 2% 14% 32% 33% 16% 3% -
158 KAKEHI Nicholas B. - 5% 21% 36% 28% 9% 1%
158 TU Leo 2% 15% 33% 33% 14% 3% -
161 WAXLER Seth B. - 1% 11% 34% 37% 14% 1%
162 GUZZO Vito - 1% 12% 34% 36% 15% 2%
163 LEE Noah 4% 19% 35% 29% 11% 2% -
164 HAN Daniel Y. - 1% 9% 28% 38% 21% 3%
165 BONIFIELD Arthur G. - 2% 11% 29% 35% 19% 4%
166 BONSELL Vance 3% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1% -
167 BYON Julian 3% 18% 35% 29% 12% 2% -
168 EPSTEIN Oliver D. 7% 27% 39% 22% 5% - -
168 GLOZMAN Justin 2% 12% 32% 36% 16% 3% -
170 GINSBERG Jordan 1% 9% 37% 37% 14% 2% -
171 ZHOU James Y. 17% 39% 32% 11% 2% - -
172 CHAN Aidan 6% 25% 36% 24% 7% 1% -
173 NG Jeremiah - 5% 22% 36% 27% 9% 1%
174 FERGUSON Constantine 17% 47% 29% 7% 1% - -
175 SAVOY Luca 1% 13% 34% 34% 15% 3% -
176 ZHANG Yupeng 7% 33% 40% 17% 3% - -
177 WANG HongXi 71% 25% 4% < 1% - - -
178 NOURELDIN Gabriel 2% 17% 37% 31% 12% 2% -
179 HAN Edward 1% 10% 29% 35% 19% 5% -
180 RAMANAN Govind 22% 46% 26% 6% 1% -
181 ASHBY Ethan J. - 5% 25% 42% 24% 3%
182 GEFELL Andrew P. - - 1% 10% 39% 50%
183 LUHAN Zachary 13% 37% 34% 13% 2% -
184 GUAN Luke 3% 20% 39% 28% 8% 1%
184 YOO Maxwell 39% 44% 15% 2% - -
186 HONG Rubin 3% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1%
187 VOSS Jeffer 30% 45% 21% 4% - -
188 FOX Gavin 38% 45% 15% 2% - -
189 CHAVES Matthew J. - 6% 26% 41% 23% 4%
189 FELDMAN Drew 10% 33% 36% 17% 4% -
191 MUNGUIA Nathan 12% 35% 35% 15% 3% -
192 LEE Ashe 39% 44% 15% 2% - -
193 PERRON Robert 14% 40% 34% 10% 1% -
194 CHANG Colin S. - 6% 27% 40% 22% 3%
195 BARRIOS Diego 9% 31% 36% 19% 5% - -
196 DECK Tyson 2% 22% 42% 26% 6% 1% -
197 TENG MATTHEW 2% 15% 33% 32% 14% 3% -
198 EYBELMAN Ariel 7% 28% 38% 22% 5% - -
199 POSY Daniel 17% 37% 31% 12% 2% - -
200 MAY Griffin M. 2% 13% 31% 33% 17% 3% -
201 FALCON-KORB Mathis 18% 39% 30% 11% 2% - -
202 LIU Lawrence 6% 26% 38% 23% 6% 1% -
203 ZHU Charlie 1% 12% 31% 34% 18% 4% -
204 GOLDIN Lucca 5% 24% 37% 25% 8% 1% -
205 FRANCOIS Alexander C. 10% 32% 36% 18% 3% - -
206 CAISSE Simon B. 1% 9% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1%
206 PIWOWAR Alex 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
208 BOUKHTIN Maxim 5% 23% 36% 26% 9% 1% -
209 LUCAS Hayden 23% 44% 25% 6% 1% - -
210 AKS Ari 6% 27% 38% 23% 6% 1% -
211 VAUGHN Jason 9% 33% 37% 17% 3% - -
212 YANG Dylan - 3% 14% 31% 32% 17% 3%
213 CUNNINGHAM-SNELSON Aahil 17% 50% 26% 6% 1% - -
214 KUSHKOV Veniamin - 5% 20% 34% 28% 10% 1%
214 MUNGOVAN Matthew 16% 55% 24% 4% - - -
214 DEKA Tanush 13% 37% 34% 14% 3% - -
217 CHEN Samuel 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% - -
218 HUANG Alexander C. 5% 22% 36% 26% 9% 1% -
219 BRAKEY Ryan 27% 44% 23% 5% 1% - -
220 TSAI Michael T. 34% 51% 14% 1% - - -
221 HUANG Tom 1% 8% 26% 37% 23% 5% -
222 LIN Felix 32% 43% 21% 4% - -
223 NIETO Titus P. 31% 43% 21% 4% - -
224 DUDNICK Christian 23% 41% 27% 8% 1% -
225 QIU Nathan - 4% 21% 43% 28% 5%
225 JAIN Aniket 23% 44% 26% 6% 1% -
227 WANG Zhuoyi 11% 35% 37% 15% 2% -
228 KIM-COGAN Ryan - 5% 22% 38% 27% 7%
229 ZHOU Miles 2% 14% 39% 34% 10% 1%
230 ZHANG Derek 1% 9% 27% 37% 22% 5%
231 SHANKAR Karthik 30% 45% 22% 4% - -
232 FIELDS Matthew S. 9% 31% 37% 19% 4% -
233 WOODWARD Connor - 4% 21% 41% 29% 5%
234 LEITH Jack 4% 22% 39% 27% 7% 1%
235 KESSLER Josh 25% 41% 25% 7% 1% - -
236 YERRAMILLI Tejas 6% 30% 41% 19% 4% - -
237 LUTHRA Arjun - 2% 12% 32% 37% 16% 1%
238 FREYRE DE ANDRADE Elian R. - 5% 20% 38% 29% 8% 1%
239 ZHANG Ethan W. 2% 15% 40% 31% 10% 1% -
240 RODGERS Jacob 25% 46% 24% 4% - - -
241 HU Christopher - 4% 26% 40% 24% 6% -
241 LANNAMAN Connor 17% 40% 31% 10% 1% - -
243 SMINK Oliver 5% 32% 39% 19% 4% - -
243 DEPEW Spencer 3% 23% 39% 26% 8% 1% -
245 ZHAO Lucas 25% 42% 25% 7% 1% - -
246 KALPATHY Rohit 2% 14% 31% 32% 17% 4% -
246 KESSLER Nathan 19% 41% 30% 9% 1% - -
246 DENBROEDER Ronald (Mackie) 2% 26% 41% 24% 6% 1% -
249 SUGIURA Samuel 4% 23% 38% 26% 8% 1% -
250 GUAN Dennis 4% 21% 37% 28% 8% 1% -
250 SHI Ivan 27% 42% 24% 6% 1% - -
252 YAN Leonard Z. 2% 44% 39% 13% 2% - -
252 HO Jacob 51% 37% 10% 1% - - -
254 KATZ Ryan 12% 34% 35% 16% 3% - -
255 FANG Eason 25% 45% 25% 5% - - -
256 LEONARD Charles 14% 35% 33% 15% 3% - -
256 BOULAIS Andrew D. 29% 41% 23% 6% 1% - -
256 DALAL Rohan 8% 32% 41% 17% 3% - -
259 RADY-PENTEK Charles A. 3% 19% 37% 30% 10% 1% -
259 CHOKSI Vihaan 29% 45% 21% 4% - - -
261 BROU Inkosi 7% 26% 37% 23% 7% 1% -
261 VAID Luke 11% 33% 35% 17% 4% - -
261 ZHAO Zhiyu 61% 32% 6% 1% - - -
264 YANG Joshua 18% 41% 30% 9% 1% - -
265 ZHOU Grant 6% 37% 39% 14% 2% - -
266 DOWNEY Baran 2% 17% 36% 32% 11% 2% -
266 HUSTON Theodore 24% 41% 26% 8% 1% - -
268 POLEYUMPTEWA Connor 65% 31% 3% - - - -
269 WALKE Devin 45% 40% 13% 2% - - -
270 VAROQUA Nalby 22% 42% 27% 8% 1% - -
271 HONG Steven < 1% 4% 22% 42% 28% 4%
271 SHI Erick 29% 42% 23% 6% 1% -
273 VENU Ram 11% 32% 35% 17% 4% - -
274 KIM Kendrick 37% 42% 17% 3% - - -
274 KIM Theodore 50% 40% 9% 1% - - -
276 IRWIN Peter 1% 8% 27% 36% 23% 5%
277 BUKOWSKI Broghan J. 2% 18% 35% 29% 12% 3% -
277 VELTZ Tyler J. 32% 43% 21% 5% 1% - -
277 SANGSTER Arden 43% 47% 9% 1% - - -
280 GAUVEY Kieran 14% 37% 33% 13% 2% - -
280 LAUB William 49% 38% 11% 2% - - -
280 KUSANAGI Soshi 51% 38% 9% 1% - - -
283 KIM Evan 58% 36% 6% - - - -
283 DE SOUZA CABRERO Yorrick 53% 38% 8% 1% - - -
285 FAYETTE Julien 40% 41% 15% 3% - - -
286 HENDERSON Jack 79% 19% 2% - - - -
286 XU Justin 62% 31% 6% - - - -
286 BARROWS Hunter 67% 29% 4% - - - -
289 SILVA Joaquin 94% 6% - - - - -
290 LESUEUR Luke J. 9% 30% 36% 20% 5% - -
290 TASIKAS Stylianos 8% 30% 37% 20% 5% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.