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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KAO Castor T.	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
2	LI Owen	-	-	-	-	17%	49%	34%
3	SHA Yi Peng	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	GARCIA Sebastian R.	-	-	-	2%	15%	44%	38%
5	SHIN Joshua J.	-	-	-	2%	31%	50%	17%
6	PO Oliver	-	-	-	3%	20%	49%	28%
7	WU Alexander	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
8	MIALL Steven A.	-	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	10%
9	PAN Eric	-	-	-	2%	13%	45%	40%
10	ACHILOV Sayid	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	12%
11	MILLER Aidan A.	-	-	6%	26%	42%	22%	4%
12	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	19%	3%
13	TSAI Max W.	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	16%
13	ANDERSON Christian	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
15	JIANG Owen	-	-	-	6%	28%	46%	20%
16	BUCKLEY-JONES Henry C.	1%	12%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
17	ALIMI Yacine A.	-	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	14%
18	QI Steve	-	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
19	GAO Anthony	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	3%
20	SINGH RANGER Vir	-	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
21	LI Ayren	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
22	DAVIDSON Elliot	-	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%
23	WANG Mason	-	5%	30%	42%	20%	3%	-
24	KLOTZ Isaiah	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%	-
25	PLASTARAS Trey	4%	20%	36%	28%	11%	2%	-
26	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	13%
27	ZHEN Ethan	-	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
28	MCQUIDE Elliot	33%	42%	21%	5%	-	-	-
29	LIU Charles	17%	47%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
30	PROMRAT Pete	-	6%	32%	41%	18%	3%	-
31	PITERBARG Maxim	1%	7%	29%	40%	20%	4%	-
32	JIN Dennis H.	-	11%	34%	36%	15%	3%	-
33	SIMA Congyu Josh	1%	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
34	HOLCOMB Cedric	22%	43%	28%	7%	-	-	-
35	ZHANG Zixuan "Mark"	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%	-
36	SHYKA-BROWN Simon	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%	-	-
37	SHAO Eric	2%	30%	41%	21%	5%	-	-
38	DONG sean	4%	22%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
39	FRANK Amir	4%	34%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
40	ZHANG Teddy	5%	24%	42%	27%	4%	-	-
41	ZHENG Harrison	54%	39%	7%	-	-	-	-
42	LACHAPELLE Cole	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-
43	PELT Ethan T.	20%	40%	29%	9%	2%	-	-
44	LOGAN Kai	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
45	LIU Jeremiah	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
46	TING Clement	87%	13%	1%	-	-	-	-
47	EBERMAN Henry	48%	41%	10%	1%	-	-	-
48	LU Jason	5%	26%	39%	24%	6%	-	-
49	LOU Felix	22%	54%	20%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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