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2023 Battle in Seattle

Div I-A Men's Saber

Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WESLER Logan A.	-	-	-	4%	23%	47%	26%
2	LUO George F.	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
3	BULL Anderson	-	-	-	3%	19%	45%	32%
3	YANG Dylan	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
5	FALLICK Ozzie	-	-	-	4%	24%	45%	27%
6	GRATHWOL-SEAR Oliver	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
7	PI Alexander	-	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%
8	VENU Ram	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	12%	1%
9	XU Andrew	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
10	YUN Jake	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
10	ZHANG Michael (Jiayuan)	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	3%
12	GOLDIN Lucca	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	3%
13	ZHAO Zhiyu	-	6%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-
14	KOTOV Leonid	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
15	SUORSA Markus	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
16	HUANG Zekai	-	2%	12%	33%	37%	14%	2%
17	YERRAMILLI Tejas	-	2%	15%	40%	32%	10%	1%
18	HOOLE Colson	-	1%	6%	26%	42%	22%	3%
19	RIGGINS Littleton K.	-	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
20	LARA Alfred	-	-	1%	9%	33%	43%	13%
21	YAN Leonard Z.	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
21	ARTIS II Ron	2%	15%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
23	CRETEN Joachim	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
24	ODURO Jesse	-	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
25	NADEL Joshua	13%	40%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
26	YAN Kevin	-	5%	25%	40%	24%	5%	-
27	HERRERA Aragon	13%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
28	RYABKOV Stanislav	4%	28%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
29	DESSAUER Tobyn M.	-	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
29	BENDER Nathan	12%	42%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
31	MA Yanjie (Jeff)	3%	18%	39%	30%	9%	1%	-
32	FAYETTE Julien	5%	25%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
33	LEIP Ouen	19%	50%	26%	5%	-	-	-
34	DOLEV Ido	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
35	NORVAL Ryan J.	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
36	MILLER Charlie	1%	12%	36%	36%	12%	2%	-
37	LOPER Alex	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
38	SECOR Solomon	44%	42%	12%	1%	-	-	-
39	ST.CLAIRE-KING Tenzin	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-	-
40	ST JOHN Nathan	54%	38%	8%	1%	-	-	-
41	SHOWALTER Cameron J.	8%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
42	HOLLEY Dakota	7%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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