The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Saber

Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 10:30 AM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KOZLOV Lucas	-	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%
2	ARCHIBALD Zachary	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	10%
3	TITOV Zachary	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%	-
3	HOWARTH Hayes	4%	17%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
5	MALEK Zak	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
6	MIAO Heqi	-	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
7	BEAL Colton	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
8	CHAVAN Aditya	2%	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
9	BROOKS Drake	-	-	1%	7%	23%	41%	29%
10	LEIGH Brayden	-	5%	24%	41%	25%	5%
11	LEE Blake	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	16%
12	ALUF William	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
13	ALUF Brendon	2%	13%	29%	32%	19%	5%	-
14	SHAPIRO Leo	-	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%
15	LIM JUWANA Maximilian	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	1%
16	KOREN George	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
17	LEE Lucas	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
18	HAGN Maximilian	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
19	LUCAS William	-	-	4%	17%	36%	32%	9%
20	LAU Kyrus	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
21	ZHAO Alexander	2%	12%	28%	32%	20%	6%	1%
22	KETCHAM Lucas	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
23	CHUNG Hahnsooh	1%	8%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
24	CHAN Brady	-	3%	14%	31%	34%	16%	3%
25	LIUZHANG Ben	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
26	PARK Sean	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	8%
27	ZHANG Howard	8%	26%	34%	23%	8%	1%	-
28	CHAN Ewan	8%	29%	36%	20%	6%	1%	-
29	CHEN Kevin	12%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
30	KOREN David	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
31	PARK Layne	8%	47%	34%	9%	1%	-
32	WANG Harrison	5%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
33	ZEMMAN Elliot	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
34	ABADIR james	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
35	ZHANG Mark	46%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
36	BURENKOV Matthew	10%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
37	MERZLYAKOV VLadimir	-	4%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
38	SUH Jordan	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
39	NARAYAN Rishi	2%	37%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
40	WANG Adam	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
40	DEGREGORIO Jack	4%	17%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.