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2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 8:00 AM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Allison V.	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
2	SEO Irene Y.	-	-	9%	44%	47%
3	LEE Lavender	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	42%
3	YANG Iris	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	51%
5	YU Lauren C.	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
6	CALISE Ella	-	2%	19%	52%	28%
7	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
8	ZHENG Julie	-	-	2%	12%	36%	40%	11%
9	ROY Layla	-	-	1%	7%	31%	49%	13%
10	YURKOVA Mariia	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	23%	3%
11	SHMAY Anastasia	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
12	NEWHARD Zelia "Zizi"	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
13	SHA Yi Ling	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	16%	1%
14	CHOW Annabelle	-	1%	10%	35%	42%	12%
15	LI Eleanor	2%	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%
16	LENZ Zoe N.	13%	45%	32%	9%	1%	-
17	CHEN Renee	-	2%	17%	39%	33%	9%
18	PEVZNER Nicole	1%	19%	54%	23%	3%
19	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
20	NEUMAN Sophie	2%	14%	37%	35%	12%	1%	-
21	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	8%	30%	38%	20%	3%
22	XIANG Emma	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
23	ZHANG Selena	1%	14%	39%	34%	10%	1%
24	UNGERER Frieda	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-
25	OLIVEIRA Lavinia M.	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
26	MARKOVSKY Nina	-	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
27	PARK Caitlyn	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%	-
28	NISSINOFF Alexandra	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
29	JIANG Claire	15%	45%	31%	8%	1%	-
30	PAULUS Sloane E.	1%	8%	31%	40%	17%	2%
31	LEVY Avery	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	3%	-
32	FIELD Julianna	-	5%	35%	39%	17%	3%	-
33	BERGEL Daphne	15%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
34	WANG Reese	23%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
35	HUNT Abigail S.	7%	58%	31%	4%	-
36	CHENG Isa	50%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
37	LIN Victoria T.	2%	14%	37%	35%	11%	1%	-
38	CHEN Sophie	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-	-
39	PARK Jacqueline	12%	43%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
40	LIU Long	17%	64%	18%	2%	-	-	-
41	CHEN Colyi	85%	15%	1%	-	-
42	MCDERMOTT Catherine	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-	-
43	DALBERG Meadow	55%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
44	LI Yixin Catherine	73%	25%	1%	-	-	-	-
45	CHAKRAPANI Ila	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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