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Little Pharaoh RYC/RCC - Winter

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Peoria Academy Private School - Peoria, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	SENIC Lucas	-	-	-	8%	91%
2	GUTH Joseph	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
3	CHUANG Oscar	-	4%	25%	50%	21%
3	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	1%	17%	49%	33%
5	DESERANNO Leander	-	1%	15%	48%	35%
6	MODADUGU Aryan	5%	26%	43%	24%	1%
7	VANOYEN Dominick	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
8	ZHAO Nathan	-	-	6%	32%	62%
9	KUE Temujin	4%	24%	42%	26%	4%
10	ZHANG Hanson	8%	33%	42%	17%	-
11	HICKEY Connor	2%	22%	49%	24%	3%
12	RUSSELL Paul	1%	10%	34%	43%	12%
13	GOODLIN Sean	6%	29%	42%	21%	2%
14	ZHOU Justin	9%	34%	40%	15%	2%
15	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	9%	33%	40%	17%	2%
16	LATORRE Leonardo	19%	43%	30%	8%	1%
17	STINNETT Brady	1%	20%	49%	26%	4%
18	YOUNG Jack	8%	52%	34%	6%	-
19	MCCONKEY Tristan	15%	50%	30%	5%	-
20	MA Nolan	31%	44%	21%	4%	-
21	ZMUDA Aiden	23%	44%	27%	6%	-
22	GREULICH Nikolas	60%	35%	5%	-	-
23	BALES Gabriel	35%	44%	18%	3%	-
24	CHASE Crosby	11%	38%	39%	13%	-
25	NOTHIAS Sebastien	83%	17%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.