Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC / RCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Friday, March 10, 2023 at 3:30 PM

Sports Events Recreation Center - The SERC - Brockport, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	-	-	-	-	9%	91%
2	LIU Enjia sherry	-	-	1%	11%	43%	45%
3	YANG Emma	-	-	-	3%	15%	39%	42%
3	JOO Natalie	-	-	1%	9%	32%	45%	12%
5	WANG Amabel	-	-	-	1%	12%	43%	45%
6	WANG Joanna	-	-	2%	18%	48%	32%
7	BING Charlotte	-	-	3%	22%	45%	26%	4%
8	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	2%	18%	47%	33%
9	LI Savannah	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%	-
10	XU Sunia (Tai Yang)	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
11	SIROTA Francis	-	-	3%	28%	49%	19%
12	PUTHOFF Olivia	-	-	3%	18%	44%	30%	5%
13	FENG Audrey	-	3%	16%	38%	37%	6%	-
14	CAI Ilana	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	-
15	TSIMIKLIS aphrodite	-	1%	10%	45%	37%	8%
16	LIN Yunong	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
17	JIANG Chloe	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
18	PAN Yiran	1%	12%	34%	37%	13%	1%
19	EYER Brooke	1%	10%	25%	33%	23%	7%	1%
20	YIN Chloe	16%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
21	WU Maggie Lei	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	25%
22	ZHANG Caroline	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-	-
23	GE Lena Lan	13%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
24	LI Beryl	5%	32%	49%	13%	1%	-
25	CAVANAGH Emma	4%	25%	42%	24%	4%	-
26	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
27	KOSCIK-AQUINO Emily	1%	8%	24%	34%	25%	8%	1%
28	SINGH Evangelina	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
29	HAFEZ Sahar	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
30	ZHANG Zoey	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
31	LIU Jenna	28%	50%	20%	2%	-	-
32	TAN Dorathy	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
33	SALOUS Sarah	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%	-
34	CHOI Suha	-	2%	13%	35%	36%	13%	1%
35	ORBÉ-AUSTIN Maya	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
36	CHIANG Mila	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
37	HUANG Natalie	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
38	YU Yi	40%	46%	13%	1%	-	-
39	LIANG Jasmine	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%	-	-
40	ECCLESTONE Tara	3%	27%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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