The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Morris Cup Spring RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 4:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HAN Changhee	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
2	TANG Albert	-	-	-	5%	29%	65%
3	MATSAKH Philip	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	RADOSLAVOV Ivan-Asen	-	3%	20%	44%	28%	5%
5	LI Matthew	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	68%
6	SRINIVASAN Vedant	-	3%	18%	41%	31%	7%
6	SHAPIRO Leon	-	2%	13%	38%	36%	11%
8	LEUNG Jin	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%	1%
9	LEE Brendan	-	-	1%	13%	43%	43%
10	GHEDINI Luca	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
11	ARICO Trey	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	2%
12	GAO Payton	3%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
13	AKYAMAC Bora	-	-	7%	31%	45%	16%
14	DALBERG Anders	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
15	LEVY Jacob	-	1%	11%	36%	40%	13%
16	SONG Noel	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
17	CHEN Hanson	-	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	2%
18	ZHAO Adam	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
19	BRAIZINHA Thomas	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
20	MARTIN Darius	-	2%	11%	32%	37%	16%	1%
21	WANG Brian	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
22	MOREA Anderson	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
22	KENNEDY christo	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	2%
24	BLACK Zachary	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
25	CHEN Ethan	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	2%
26	KOVACS Wyatt	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
27	LEE Eugene	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%
28	VISHAWADIA Jaimin	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
29	LEE Charles T	2%	24%	45%	24%	5%	-
30	SION Andrew	30%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
31	PERLMAN Taiyo	6%	38%	40%	14%	2%	-
32	MATTOS Luis Felipe	6%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%
33	TANG Terry	1%	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%
34	BAI Brian	3%	23%	44%	24%	5%	-
35	ZAPPALA Nikolai	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
36	GAO Andrew	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	-
37	HOLLIS Sean	5%	47%	37%	10%	1%	-
38	SHANNON Jack	6%	28%	40%	21%	5%	-	-
39	SIMON Luke	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
40	YU William	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	1%
41	MUNDY Ezra	1%	19%	47%	27%	6%	-
42	COSSROW Alex	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
42	KIM Dylan	17%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-
44	EGE Nathan	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-
45	HUANG Chenghan	13%	38%	35%	12%	2%	-	-
46	HARRA Alexander	17%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-
46	DIAZ Gabriel	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
48	MENDEZ Ren	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-	-
49	SNYDER Simian	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
50	CHANG Ian	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.