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Cherry Blossom ROC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 11:00 AM

University of Maryland, Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	YANG Alisa	-	-	2%	27%	48%	23%
2	JAKEL Sophia N.	-	-	-	2%	30%	69%
3	PAPADAKIS Lily	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
3	WITTER Catherine A.	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	14%
5	LUO Ashley	-	-	1%	9%	37%	54%
6	LU Samantha R.	-	1%	17%	41%	33%	8%
7	SU Evelyn	-	10%	36%	37%	15%	2%
8	GUMAGAY Erika L.	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
9	LI Zhenni (Jenny)	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
10	LIU Nicole	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	13%
11	CAMPBELL Anahit M.	-	-	2%	28%	48%	22%
12	GORDET Cristina G.	-	3%	22%	42%	28%	6%
13	MIINEA Elena	-	23%	43%	27%	6%	-
14	HICKS Grace	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
15	LEE Yedda	-	5%	26%	43%	22%	3%
16	POLANICHKA Nicole	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
17	ZANGA Kaitlyn	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
18	TAPIA Sandy	-	-	1%	17%	61%	20%
19	BRISK Angelica A.	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
20	ASHER Valerie	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
21	BOWIE Charlotta	-	6%	32%	50%	11%	-
22	LAWSON Marie A.	-	-	2%	26%	48%	24%
23	YOU Emily	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	8%
24	PEELER Julia	-	4%	26%	42%	24%	4%
25	PLAZA-GASALLA Gloria	4%	23%	39%	26%	8%	1%
26	ILLES Fanni	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	4%
27	BYRON Karen J.	-	2%	75%	21%	2%	-
28	JEANDHEUR Carole A.	6%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%
29	GAVASHELI Margarita	26%	48%	22%	3%	-	-
30	MCSHINE Katelyn H.	-	1%	8%	26%	42%	23%
31	QIU Emily	1%	13%	36%	35%	13%	1%
32	PROKOP Jeannine A.	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
33	SANFORD Kenyatta L.	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
34	MORET Brighid E.	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
35	ILYAS Ayah	36%	47%	16%	2%	-	-
36	MAGALSKI Mary	14%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-
37	WIESSLER-HUGHES Linda	-	16%	40%	34%	10%	1%
38	ALAWNEH Leen	6%	40%	38%	14%	2%	-
39	ONO Melisa	41%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
40	BOGDANOVSKAYA Elizaveta	46%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
41	GARG Suhani	52%	47%	1%	-	-	-
42	NOH Rachel	35%	52%	12%	1%	-	-
43	MURPHY Megan	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
44	DOHERTY Eva	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-
44	ALAWNEH Lujain	90%	9%	-	-	-	-
44	RITTER Brooklyn	45%	46%	8%	1%	-	-
47	LEVKOV Maita	47%	53%	1%	-	-	-
48	GIFFORD Sally	5%	29%	48%	17%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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