The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Fortune Fencing SYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Ontario Convention Center - Hall A & B - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MENDIOLA RITCHIE Ingrid	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	16%
2	TUNG Renee	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
3	HU Michelle	-	4%	16%	36%	34%	10%
3	ZHANG XUANYI	-	-	3%	19%	44%	33%
5	MANN Sophia J.	-	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%
6	CHRISTOTHOULOU Olympia C.	-	-	4%	18%	42%	35%
7	YAO Rainie	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	20%	4%
8	WANG Zidan	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
9	GAUTAM Sahana	-	3%	19%	42%	30%	7%
10	SCHMIDT Isabel	-	7%	32%	43%	18%
11	YAM Danika	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
12	STONE Coral	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
13	CHAN Jolene	2%	21%	38%	28%	10%	1%
14	JEFFORDS Sophia	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
15	GRULICH Rayaana	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
16	CHO Michelle	4%	36%	42%	17%	2%
17	HUANG MADELINE	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
18	LI YING CHU	1%	13%	38%	37%	12%
19	WIGGINS Yaanathia	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%
20	CHEN Elaine	10%	43%	35%	10%	1%	-
21	FENG Alicia G.	-	5%	18%	33%	29%	13%	2%
22	HUAI Delilah	-	5%	28%	44%	23%
23	GOLOVITSER Maya	6%	24%	37%	26%	8%	1%
24	WANG Gloria	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
25	WANG Peijia	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
26	XA-CHIN Sara	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	1%
27	TURIANO Nadelle	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
28	NEELEY Leilani	58%	35%	6%	-	-	-
29	BROWNER June	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
30	KINKADE Ellie	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	3%
31	VANKIRK Avery	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
32	KIM Elyssa	32%	43%	20%	5%	-	-
33	HUSS Miriam	69%	26%	4%	-	-	-
34	KNULL Emma	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
35	LEE Lauren	3%	22%	44%	26%	6%	-
36	LI Esther	81%	17%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.