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Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, April 9, 2023 at 4:00 PM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FINLEY Dylan	-	-	3%	17%	43%	36%
2	KOVACS Wyatt	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
3	MONTALBINE Aidan	-	5%	19%	36%	31%	9%
3	LU Howen	2%	10%	26%	32%	22%	7%	1%
5	LANGEN Carter M.	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
6	LEVY Jacob	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
7	LUM-DEBONO Alex	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
8	DAVIDSON Elliot	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
9	MCLAUGHLIN Ryan	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
10	SRINIVASAN Vedant	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
11	SHAPIRO Leon	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
12	TANG xianchi	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
13	WERWA Griffith	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
14	YAP Nathan	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
15	TJON Calum	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
16	LEE Eugene	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
17	GERRISH William	-	1%	11%	38%	39%	11%
18	TORRES Treston	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
19	GLEBA Nico	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
20	WANG Brian	2%	11%	27%	32%	21%	7%	1%
21	YOON DYLAN	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
22	WUN Jonathan	4%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%
23	TAM Kyle	14%	49%	30%	6%	-	-
24	BENTLEY Nick	7%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
25	BAI Brian	3%	22%	45%	25%	5%	-
26	HUDSON Jonathan R.	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
27	PLASTARAS Trey	1%	7%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%
28	WANG Rory	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
29	SANTIAGO Elias	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
30	BRILLANT Philippe H.	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%
31	HOLMES Aiden G.	2%	12%	27%	31%	20%	7%	1%
32	JEFFERY Jakob	-	1%	11%	36%	40%	13%
33	SURESH Rohan	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
34	SHANNON Jack	11%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
34	SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
36	ZAPPALA Nikolai	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
37	CHENG Austyn	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
38	LEE Charles T	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-
39	XU Ethan	36%	42%	18%	3%	-	-
40	VISHAWADIA Jaimin	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-
41	MASTROPAOLO Jonah W.	6%	23%	33%	25%	10%	2%	-
42	NEWELL Tim	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
43	MANLAPAZ Jan Vincent	56%	37%	7%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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