The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Fairfax Challenge Spring RYC/RJCC/ROC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WOODWARD Connor	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
2	ZHANG Jeffrey	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	LINDHOLM Oliver S.	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
3	YAN William	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	21%	3%
5	CHAVES Matthew J.	-	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
6	JENSBY Jason	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
7	WANG Justin	-	-	3%	15%	37%	36%	9%
8	LAU Justin Y.	-	-	3%	15%	36%	36%	10%
9	BOUKHTIN Maxim	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
10	HOTHA Nikhil	-	1%	11%	38%	41%	9%
11	DECK Tyson	-	-	3%	17%	37%	34%	9%
12	ONG Chinli	5%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%	-
13	REHM Liam	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
14	GAUVEY Kieran	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
15	LIN Felix	1%	8%	27%	38%	21%	5%	-
16	SHANKAR Karthik	-	6%	28%	43%	20%	2%
17	ETIN Ari	-	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	6%
18	LICHTERMAN Jakub	3%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
19	SUN Ziyao	1%	13%	42%	34%	9%	1%
20	PARCELL Colby	15%	42%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
21	HALL Noah	3%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
22	WEINSTEIN Nate	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
23	KUSANAGI Soshi	10%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
24	BAKIAN Tristan	15%	41%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
25	DRZEWICZEWSKI Sean	33%	46%	18%	3%	-	-
26	FRUTH Evan	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
27	DE SOUZA CABRERO Yorrick	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
28	FARAON Paulus	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
29	CLARK Keagan	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	15%	2%
30	ELLIOTT Reyhan	24%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
31	BERGER Jacob	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
32	GERALD Hunter	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
33	AHLMAN Jason	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-	-
34	KENNEDY Aidan	32%	49%	16%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.