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Division 1 Championships/April NAC

Vet-60 Men's Épée

Monday, April 24, 2023 at 11:00 AM

America's Center Convention Complex - St. Louis, MO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DRAGONETTI Walter E.	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
2	RANES Evan	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
3	VARNEY John R.	-	3%	13%	31%	36%	16%
3	LINGVAY Laurance (Larry) S.	3%	18%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
5	FRANK Fred	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
6	RICHARDS Dick	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
7	HUDSON Jeffrey (Jeff) A.	-	-	1%	7%	23%	41%	28%
8	SKOPIK Jr August	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
9	AMELI Sean	-	-	2%	10%	27%	39%	22%
10	O'DOWD Andrew J.	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	2%
11	VIEDERMAN Matthew (Matt)	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
12	HAYENGA Gary M.	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	13%
13	KLEIN Johannes	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
14	EVANS Allen L.	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
15	HANAHAN Thomas M.	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	5%	1%
16	PERKA Michael	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	22%	5%
17	JENSEN David	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
18	WATRALL Rick	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
19	OCHS Bradley C.	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
20	SZOKOLAY Robert E.	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	9%	1%
21	MAZZOLI Julio C.	-	-	4%	16%	35%	34%	11%
22	HUGHES Michael D.	8%	27%	35%	23%	7%	1%
23	MARIANI Lou	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
24	SWANSON Dave	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
24	KANE Tim	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%	-
26	MCDONNELL Michael	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	4%	-
27	WHEELER Mark C.	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
28	SIMMONS Matthew C.	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
29	DOWNEY Gerard C.	3%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%
30	BENNETT Craig	6%	21%	33%	26%	11%	2%	-
31	POPOVICI Alexander M.	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
32	ALEXANDER Chuck	5%	20%	33%	28%	12%	2%	-
33	MASE James B.	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
34	HVIDING Ketil	41%	41%	15%	2%	-	-	-
35	WAGMAN Robert S.	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
36	PIERRO Roger	16%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
37	SMITH Herman E.	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
38	SWANN William A.	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
39	NEALE James H.	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	4%	-
40	TKACH Robert W.	10%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
41	PITZEL John E.	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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