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Jeff Wolfe Long Island Challenge ROC 2023

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 2:15 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MILLER Aidan A.	-	-	1%	7%	25%	43%	24%
2	STRAYER Andrew	-	-	1%	7%	33%	60%
3	LAKEHAL-AYAT Anil	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
3	ZHEN Ethan	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
5	PLASTARAS Trey	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
6	MAGALONG William	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
7	GE Daniel	2%	14%	32%	32%	16%	4%	-
8	FENG Michael	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%
9	WANG Brian	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	23%
10	CHO Tyler H.	-	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%
11	WANG Rory	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
12	SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad	4%	19%	35%	28%	12%	2%	-
13	NICOLSON William	4%	24%	39%	26%	7%	-
14	TJON Calum	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
15	PEDERSEN Charles	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
16	TANG xianchi	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
17	XU Ethan	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
18	ROBINS Brennan	-	4%	24%	43%	26%	3%
19	KALIPERSAD Neil A.	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
20	WOODTHORPE Michael G.	-	-	4%	20%	45%	31%
21	SANTIAGO Elias	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	14%
22	GERRISH William	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	16%	3%
23	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
24	GLEBA Nico	-	4%	21%	42%	29%	4%
25	LEUNG Jin	1%	11%	33%	38%	16%	2%
26	CHENG Austyn	3%	22%	41%	27%	7%	1%
27	AMRANI David	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
28	RNO Kyler	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
28	HUNTER Phillip	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
30	MONTALBINE Aidan	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	6%
31	WOHLERS Trevor	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
32	HOLCOMB Cedric	1%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%
33	TAM Kyle	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
34	SURESH Rohan	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
35	MCQUIDE elliot	6%	30%	40%	20%	4%	-
36	MATTOS Luis Felipe	3%	30%	42%	21%	4%	-
37	CANEDO James	37%	42%	18%	3%	-	-
38	HOE Kenneth Y.	10%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
39	CRUZ ZURITA Leonardo	7%	33%	39%	18%	3%	-
40	MONTERROSO Sebastian	51%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
41	NERI Stephen	52%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
42	GRANADOS Luis	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
43	MANLAPAZ Jan Vincent	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-
44	RUPP Keegan E.	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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