The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Collegiate Cup RJCC

Junior Women's Épée

Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Liontree Arena (RIMAC) @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LEE Natasha	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
2	BEZUGLAYA Varvara	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
3	PECK Maia A.	-	1%	8%	31%	45%	15%
3	BUSH Emma	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
5	MARTYNOVA Diana	-	2%	16%	39%	35%	8%
5	KUKVA Taisiya	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
7	NELSON-LOVE Lily B.	-	3%	18%	44%	36%
8	MANDAP Svetlanna	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
9	LIN Ashley	2%	18%	42%	31%	7%
10	ZHEREBCHEVSKA Veronika	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
11	LIANG Jingjing	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	2%
12	WANG Jessie	1%	12%	37%	38%	11%
13	MENDOZA Zoie	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
14	LIN Ariel	1%	8%	30%	41%	18%	2%
15	HSIU Elizabeth	-	4%	22%	42%	27%	5%
16	STOMMEL-DIAZ Charly	12%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
17	DUONG Zoey	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
18	CHANG Celine A.	-	4%	18%	38%	31%	9%
19	JAMES Ashley	23%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-
20	HASIM Eurietta	12%	36%	34%	15%	3%	-
21	WANG Victoria	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
22	GUO Luxi	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
23	BROWN Riley	3%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%
24	OLORVIDA Isabella	3%	26%	42%	23%	5%	-
25	SHARMA Sanvi	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
26	LAI Amanda	4%	30%	42%	20%	4%	-
27	DRYSDALE Lita	5%	34%	41%	17%	2%
28	OBERDERFER Viktoriia	35%	41%	19%	4%	-	-
29	DALEY Keira	3%	22%	42%	26%	6%	-
30	YOUSSEF Caroline	49%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
31	ESTRADA Ariana	67%	29%	4%	-	-
32	SCANLAN Claire	28%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-
33	ZHANG Helen	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-
34	HANSON Addison (Connor)	11%	49%	32%	7%	1%	-
35	SCHOR Elisabeth	30%	45%	20%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.