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Mission SYC 2023

Y-10 Men's Saber

Friday, May 5, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AGARWAAL Yohan	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	24%
2	KOZLOV Lucas	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	22%
3	ARCHIBALD Zachary	-	-	3%	18%	36%	32%	10%
3	AVERY Marcus	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
5	YU Bowen	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
6	BEAL Colton	-	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	28%
7	GRABOWSKI Alexander	-	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%
8	BROOKS Drake	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
9	YU Ian	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	17%	3%
10	SONG Aidan	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	5%
11	CHOU Qianhao	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
12	WU Vincent	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
13	MIAO Heqi	-	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
14	YI Andrew	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
15	HENDERSON Louis	1%	8%	22%	33%	25%	9%	1%
16	ZHANG Weihang	7%	26%	34%	23%	8%	1%	-
17	LUCAS William	-	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
18	SLAVNOV Anton	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
19	ISAYENKO Daniel	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
20	LIU Jayden	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
21	BRADY Jack	1%	12%	32%	33%	17%	4%	-
22	RABEL Sebastian	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
23	HOWARTH Hayes	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
24	HAN Kyle	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
25	STOLCKE Julian	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
26	LIUZHANG Ben	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
27	LEVY Daniel	-	5%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
28	RABEL Alexander	8%	27%	34%	22%	7%	1%	-
29	RINALDI Benigno	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	-
30	CHEN Kevin	3%	18%	35%	29%	12%	3%	-
31	ZHAO Alexander	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
32	FIELDS Eli	-	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	1%
33	MUSA Roman	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
34	ALLEN Parker	17%	46%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
35	LIM JUWANA Maximilian	1%	10%	25%	33%	22%	7%	1%
36	WANG Harrison	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-
37	CIECIEREGA MATTHEW	3%	16%	31%	30%	16%	4%	-
38	KIM Mason	17%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
39	CHAN Brady	8%	27%	34%	22%	7%	1%	-
40	BALBALE Zayd	55%	38%	6%	-	-	-	-
41	SCHRODER Theodore	56%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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