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Senior Mixed Épée

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	TEPEDELENLIOGLU Mehmet	-	-	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
2	RICHARD Silas	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
3	NICHOLSON Dimitri E.	-	-	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%
3	PERALTA Christian	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
5	HERODOTOU Orestis	-	-	1%	4%	18%	36%	31%	9%
6	MENEGOLI Lorenzo	-	-	-	1%	6%	34%	59%
7	SITTER Gregoire	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
8	MAYCHROWITZ Matt	-	2%	10%	25%	34%	23%	7%	-
9	DUONG Zoey	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
10	PIVOVAROV Lucas	4%	36%	39%	17%	4%	-	-
11	SODHI Jaco	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%	-
12	ROOD Alex	-	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
13	MADRID Maureen	18%	40%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
14	HEINS Dylan	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-	-
15	HICKS Zachary	1%	7%	22%	33%	25%	10%	2%	-
16	LONDON George	1%	7%	21%	31%	25%	11%	3%	-
17	HELGE James R.	-	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	21%
18	NGUYEN Steven	-	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
19	NICHOLSON Dominic A.	-	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
20	HARGROVE Charles	-	-	2%	11%	34%	43%	10%
21	SLATER Michael D.	-	1%	7%	25%	43%	25%
22	PHILIPPINE Johan L.	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
23	SLOAN Ryan	5%	22%	37%	26%	9%	1%	-
24	ABELE Chris	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
25	CHEN Steve	-	1%	7%	20%	32%	27%	11%	2%
26	VERITY Charles	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	14%	2%
27	KUO Michael	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
28	LI Yunji	8%	34%	38%	17%	3%	-
29	BEITTEL David F.	-	4%	15%	30%	30%	16%	4%	-
30	NGUYEN Grayson	2%	12%	26%	31%	20%	7%	1%	-
31	HARGROVE Kai	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
32	DOWNEY Gerard C.	-	< 1%	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%
33	HOGE Patrick	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
34	OU wei	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-	-
35	BROCKMANN Brooke	1%	5%	18%	31%	29%	14%	3%
36	COHEN Jack	1%	13%	42%	33%	10%	1%	-
37	AIRES Julia	5%	26%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
38	MAYER Bob	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%	-
39	SHELBY Robert	12%	33%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
40	VERITY Alexander	7%	29%	39%	20%	5%	-	-
41	DUONG John	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-	-	-
42	KAUR Jaap	21%	38%	28%	10%	2%	-	-	-
43	LOGUE Paul	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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