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Fortune Fencing RYC/RJCC/ROC(D1A, DV2, VET) & Y8

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 12:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JIANG Evelyn	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
2	GAIKWAD Ashmiee	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
3	KANG Ellie	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
3	TONG Laurie	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
5	LIN Elaine	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
6	RAGHURAMAN Anishka	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
7	SENGUPTA Jia	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
8	GONG suri	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
9	LONG Jessie	-	-	4%	17%	37%	33%	8%
10	WU Daisy	-	1%	10%	34%	42%	13%
11	LIU kai yin aria	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
12	BACKES Anastasia	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
13	LONG Chloe	-	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%
14	WONG Natalie	13%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
15	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
16	LIN Ariel	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
17	LEI Zitong (Meya)	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
18	DIMAPILIS JHEAVEN	3%	16%	32%	32%	15%	3%
19	KIM Saeren	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
20	HU Ashley	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
21	PARK Chloe	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
22	CHANG Annette	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
23	FAN Tina	1%	10%	33%	39%	15%	2%
24	BABOLDASHTIAN Rosegol	1%	13%	38%	35%	11%	1%
25	CAI Joanna	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
25	HWANG Charlotte	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
27	SUNG Isabella	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
28	VENNE Sophie	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
29	CHANG Kaitlyn	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
30	GROSSMAN Elizabeth	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
31	HWANG Sophie	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
32	LIQUARD Lea	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
33	DUDNICK Caitlin	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
34	CHENG Anna	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
35	SHEN Elise	6%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-	-
36	CAO Kim	15%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
37	SAYONE Liliana	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
38	SUTHERLAND Sadie	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
39	BI Mia	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
40	RUSMEVICHIENTONG Lyla	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
41	DING Jolie	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
42	SHI Maxine	16%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-
43	TANG Athena	31%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
44	LOMOTAN Audrey	1%	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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