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Junior Men's Saber

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	JI Cody Walter	-	-	-	1%	21%	78%
2	TONG ZACHARY	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
3	LINDHOLM Oliver S.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
3	HONG Steven	-	-	3%	20%	47%	30%
5	TIAGI Daniel	-	6%	23%	40%	26%	5%
6	BELL III Alfred (Tripp) R.	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	9%
7	DECK Tyson	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%
8	GREENBAUM Ian L.	-	-	5%	28%	57%	10%
9	SHANKWILER Christopher	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	21%
10	ZHANG Derek	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
10	YE Eric	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	15%
12	MAY Griffin M.	1%	9%	31%	40%	16%	2%
13	TIAGI George	2%	16%	41%	34%	6%	-
14	CHEONG Heonjun	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
15	VAID Luke	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
16	HALL Noah	5%	26%	42%	22%	4%	-
17	ZHANG Ethan W.	-	2%	16%	40%	36%	5%
18	FANG Eason	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
19	GUAN Dennis	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%	2%
20	MAHAPATRA Samarth	1%	11%	32%	38%	16%	2%
21	HUNG Samuel	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
22	GUREVICH Benjamin	6%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
23	KUSANAGI Soshi	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
24	LIM Kai	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
25	XIE Joshua	3%	18%	39%	30%	9%	1%
26	MONTALVO ashur	12%	39%	36%	12%	1%	-
26	SO Preston	4%	22%	41%	27%	6%	-
28	MONTALVO Emmeric	5%	26%	42%	23%	3%	-
29	XIA Matthew	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
30	KURILO Michael	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
31	GONG Gavin	22%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-
32	SOKOLOV Arseniy	41%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
33	FRUTH Evan	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
34	GUREVICH Savely	24%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
35	HUO Ethan	17%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-
35	RAY Evan	13%	50%	31%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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