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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESERANNO Jeidus	-	-	-	-	-	4%	96%
2	SENIC Lucas	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
3	EDWARDS Maxon	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
3	LIU Ethan	-	-	-	2%	14%	45%	39%
5	MCISAAC Finn	-	-	-	3%	17%	46%	34%
6	SUN Ryan	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
7	STRINGER David	-	-	-	4%	21%	48%	26%
8	REEVES Liam	-	-	-	4%	34%	61%
9	GUTH Joseph	-	-	-	4%	22%	47%	26%
9	XIE Buster	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%	1%
11	CHUANG Oscar	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
12	ALLEN Henry G.	-	-	4%	25%	53%	18%
13	MASSIMINO Andrew	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	6%	-
14	SLUSHER Gideon	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%	-
15	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
16	TAN Connor	1%	5%	17%	31%	30%	14%	2%
17	TOWNE Benjamin	-	3%	17%	38%	32%	9%	1%
18	HEYBOER Jason	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	1%	-
19	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	3%	22%	43%	27%	5%	-
20	TAMIYA Masao	1%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	1%
21	LEE Ian	7%	32%	40%	18%	2%	-
22	KUE Temujin	3%	21%	42%	29%	5%	-
23	FINDLAY Zachary	-	3%	18%	38%	31%	8%	1%
24	REAUME Nate	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
25	NAZARIO Dominic	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
26	DUNLAP Ian	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
27	KNIBBE Nathan	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
28	LIU Yinhong	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
29	KIM Daniel	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	6%	-
30	HICKEY Connor	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
31	LOCKWOOD Jacob	11%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
32	TATE Liam	17%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
33	HAN Ethan	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	5%	-
34	MAVANI Krishna	9%	30%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
35	GOGOI Kavi	8%	35%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
36	FRASER Rhys	5%	25%	40%	24%	6%	-	-
37	LINDOW Connor	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
38	NI Aaric	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-	-
39	LIM-SEIWERT Tristan	51%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
40	ZMUDA Aiden	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
40	WENGER Liam	32%	42%	21%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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