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GRAFA RYC & Y8\RJCC\ROC\Vet - Third Coast Cup

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 12:00 PM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUTH Joseph	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
2	WILKINS Mateo	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
3	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	6%
3	HAINES Ethan	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	49%
5	LU Howen	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
6	RAJPAL Alastair	4%	21%	37%	27%	9%	1%
7	SANTOS Carlos R.	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
8	TOWNE Benjamin	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%
9	CHUANG Oscar	1%	11%	32%	36%	18%	3%
10	STRINGER David	-	-	5%	21%	43%	31%
11	TWEMLOW Sacha	-	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	2%
12	MASSIMINO Andrew	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
13	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	-	7%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
14	EDWARDS Maxon	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	21%
15	GNEUHS Sam	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
16	GHAZALI Omer	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
17	KUE Temujin	5%	24%	38%	25%	6%	1%
18	FERENCZ Alexander J.	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%
19	SMITH Erick	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
20	BIESIADA Jan	-	7%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
21	NYKAMP Caleb	-	3%	15%	37%	35%	11%
22	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
23	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
24	COPELAND Nigel	3%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
24	VANOYEN Dominick	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	6%
26	HICKEY Connor	14%	37%	34%	14%	2%	-
27	OWENS Andrew J.	-	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%
28	WICKA Clayton	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
29	NAZARIO Dominic	7%	32%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
30	ZMUDA Aiden	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
31	HEYBOER Jason	2%	16%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
32	HAN Ethan	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
33	BASS Nathan	5%	27%	39%	23%	6%	1%
34	LOCKWOOD Jacob	5%	32%	39%	19%	4%	-	-
35	HERRERA Xavier	44%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
36	FINDLER Zachary	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
37	KOLACKI Gabriel	72%	24%	3%	-	-	-
38	NI Aaric	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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