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2023 OFC Grand Prix

Div II Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Olympic Fencers Club - Johns Creek, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	ZHANG Eric	-	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
2	CHUNG Joshua	-	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
3	LANGE Eric	-	-	-	-	2%	11%	38%	50%
3	LIN Kason	-	-	1%	4%	14%	31%	34%	16%
5	FAN Yuchen	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	9%	2%	-
6	KWON Jason	-	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
7	SRAMBIKKAL Pranav	-	1%	6%	20%	33%	27%	11%	1%
8	NGUYEN Audrey	-	-	4%	15%	31%	32%	15%	2%
9	PULLEN Ayah	1%	7%	23%	32%	25%	10%	2%	-
10	AWAN Saqlain	-	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%
11	HONG Ryan	-	1%	5%	16%	30%	30%	15%	3%
12	YANAMANDRA Sidhansh	-	-	3%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
13	WEBB Jacob	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
14	NGUYEN Hubert	-	2%	9%	23%	32%	24%	9%	1%
15	ADIBZADEH Mehrdad	-	1%	5%	16%	29%	30%	16%	3%
16	BERNSTEIN Matt	-	1%	7%	19%	30%	27%	13%	2%
17	SHAFRITZ Noah	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
18	MOON Nicole	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%	-
20	SAYLOR David	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	15%
21	CHUNG Joseph	5%	20%	32%	26%	12%	3%	-	-
22	NICKERSON Oliver	1%	13%	31%	32%	18%	5%	1%	-
23	REDDY Daksh	4%	22%	36%	26%	10%	2%	-	-
24	JUNG Elliot	1%	8%	21%	31%	25%	11%	3%	-
25	PATEL Krishiv	1%	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
26	KRIEGER Jack	-	4%	18%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
27	ZIMINSKY Karel M.	-	1%	6%	19%	31%	28%	12%	2%
28	LY Gabriel	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
29	KIM Minsung	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-	-
30	ILENRE Roni	-	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
31	CHOI David	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
32	KIM Sangone	42%	44%	13%	2%	-	-	-	-
33	BARCLAY Khyri	-	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
34	ATON Dave	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
35	JEONG Arisu	2%	12%	28%	31%	19%	6%	1%	-
36	ADEGBENRO Isaiah	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-	-
37	LU Chang	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
38	JOO Jeremy	15%	33%	31%	15%	4%	1%	-	-
39	LEE Byungwoo	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
40	DU Chaoxia	36%	46%	16%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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